US midterm elections: Why Zohran Mamdani's influence could become a headache for Democrats and Republicans

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has emerged as an unexpected force in the November 3 US midterm elections. The 34-year-old democratic socialist has already demonstrated that his influence can extend beyond City Hall. In June, three candidates he backed in New York Democratic congressional primaries defeated establishment-supported rivals, including two sitting lawmakers. The results strengthened Mamdani's position within the party and raised questions about whether his brand of politics could reshape Democratic campaigns elsewhere.

But the Mamdani factor cuts both ways. Progressive activists see his appeal as evidence that Democrats can mobilise voters around affordability and a break with established political leadership. Republicans, meanwhile, have sought to make him a symbol of what they describe as the Democratic Party's shift to the left. Recent controversy over his comments on the October 7 anniversary has also exposed the political risks of his positions on Israel and Gaza.

Mamdani's primary victories put him on the national stage

Mamdani's clearest demonstration of political muscle came in New York's June congressional primaries. He backed former city comptroller Brad Lander against Representative Dan Goldman, democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier against Representative Adriano Espaillat, and state Assembly member Claire Valdez in the race for the seat being vacated by Representative Nydia Velázquez. All three candidates won their primaries.

The question is: Can Mamdani's influence travel beyond his home city?.

Republicans trying to make Mamdani a midterm issue

Republicans have increasingly invoked Mamdani while warning voters that Democrats are moving too far to the left. The strategy seeks to connect his democratic-socialist politics with the wider Democratic Party, including candidates who do not share his positions.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has maintained a cordial relationship with Mamdani, praising the mayor after their meeting at the White House and later speaking positively about his start in office. According to the Associated Press, Trump's warmth towards Mamdani is the cause of frustration for some Republicans who are seeking to portray the NYC mayor as evidence of Democratic extremism.

Mamdani's affordability message could help Democrats in midterms

Mamdani's rise has been closely associated with the cost of living and calls for a more forceful economic message from Democrats. That emphasis could resonate in a midterm cycle in which the cost of groceries, fuel and other everyday essentials is emerging as a central issue for voters and a test for US President Donald Trump. According to a new AP-NORC poll, about 65 per cent of US adults surveyed said Trump's policies were responsible for today's high cost of living, while 67 per cent of Republicans said factors outside Trump's control were more responsible. Just 17 per cent approved of Trump's handling of the cost of living, while his approval on the economy stood at a new low of 26 per cent.

Israel and Gaza: The recent Mamdani controversy

Mamdani recently stoked controversy with his remarks on the third anniversary of the Hamas October 7 attack on Israel. The NYC Mayor, in a statement, acknowledged the "horrific war crimes of October 07" while accusing Israel of committing war crimes and genocide in Gaza.

“The suffering did not begin nor end that day,” Mamdani's statement read. “It instead continued through the Israeli government’s devastating, ongoing genocide in Gaza, in which it has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians—including more than 21,000 children. Even since the so-called ceasefire, more than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed. That suffering has intensified with every Israeli bomb dropped on ambulances waiting outside hospitals, every drone strike targeting a residential building or journalist, and every shipment of food aid turned away at a border crossing. Many New Yorkers are reckoning with this unbearable grief, and we mourn alongside them—all while knowing that our tax dollars fund these war crimes.”

“Three years later, we must refuse to accept a world in which occupation and apartheid continue, where war crimes are met with impunity, and our federal government continues its complicity with every arms shipment. To honour the dead, we must fight for a world in which every person can live with freedom, safety, and dignity,” the statement added.

The statement triggered backlash, with Jewish leaders arguing that it diminished the pain associated with the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Some Democrats also distanced themselves from his remarks.

Can the Mamdani factor shape the midterms?

Mamdani has already demonstrated an ability to influence candidate selection in New York. His endorsement record gives progressives a reason to argue that the party should reconsider its approach to elections and place greater emphasis on economic insecurity and challenges to established political power.

But the broader electoral effect remains uncertain. As voters prepare to choose a new Congress on November 3, the Mamdani factor is less a settled national formula than a test of the Democratic Party's direction: whether a politics built around affordability and insurgent energy can broaden its appeal, or whether the ideological battles surrounding its most visible progressive figures will become a liability.