Iran war: Gulf states' air defences are under strain. It might force them to go on offensive

Multiple reports suggest that Gulf nations are slowly running out of air defence capacity amid a barrage of Iranian missile and drone strikes in retaliation for US–Israel attacks on the Islamic Republic in the ongoing war. This is forcing nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to consider joining the war against Iran after remaining on the defensive for the first month. Here is how the air defence systems are holding up against the Iranian strikes.

Iran fired thousands of missiles and drones at Gulf nations

A report in Bloomberg claimed that Iran has launched 1,200 ballistic missiles and 4,000 Shahed drones and cruise missiles at US bases and military assets in Gulf countries since the war began on 28 February. Iran also targeted oil and gas facilities in several nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. This past weekend alone, around 40 Iranian missiles were launched in a single wave, which is twice the daily average, the report said.

Gulf countries ended up firing double the number of interceptors

The air defence systems of Gulf nations, mostly bought from the US, have fired more than 2,400 interceptors. This has nearly exhausted their pre-war stockpiles of these missiles, according to the Bloomberg report.

This is because the defence systems often have to fire at least twice at each missile or drone based on the ‘shoot, shoot, look’ doctrine. This means interceptors are launched twice and then the results are assessed. By implication, it can be estimated that at least 2,400 interceptors were fired over the course of the war, perhaps more. This is because, at times, additional interceptor missiles are needed to defend against incoming projectiles, the Bloomberg report noted.

Most of these interceptors were Patriot PAC-3 and GEM-T (Guidance Enhanced Missile–Tactical) missiles. Before the war, Gulf nations had fewer than 2,800 of these.

Iran targeted crucial military and fuel facilities of Gulf nations; layered defence under strain

Iran has targeted US bases such as Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, Al Udeid in Qatar and Al Dhafra in the UAE, among others. Its missiles and drones have also hit ports and oil infrastructure.

Gulf states intercepted most of the threats, but the volume of attacks from Iran has created significant pressure.

Interceptor missiles are expensive

There is heavy dependence on US-supplied defence systems. Pre-war stockpiles of these specific interceptors were fewer than 2,800, whereas at least 2,400 have already been fired, leaving limited reserves.

They are not quickly replaceable in large quantities during active conflict, with Patriot PAC-3 missiles alone costing millions of dollars each.

Countries such as the UAE also use the US-made THAAD defence system, as well as fighter jets for intercepting drones and cruise missiles.

However, high-end ballistic interceptors are reserved for the most dangerous threats.

Iranian strikes are getting through despite interceptions

Some Iranian missiles or drones have managed to land in Gulf states and cause damage despite interception efforts.

Iran’s long-range missiles are harder to fully suppress.

Iran has managed to launch them from dispersed sites despite claims that US–Israel airstrikes have degraded two-thirds of these launchers.

Gulf defence is running dry. Offence may be the next option

Sustained Iranian attacks risk Gulf nations running out of key defensive munitions.

Some officials are privately questioning the security guarantees offered by the US, while others have reportedly asked it to ‘finish the job’ in order to deprive Iran of the ability to carry out such strikes in future.

This could eventually force them to join the war.

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