With three weeks to Election Day, Senate Republicans are pouring their money into a handful of states they once considered safe, while seemingly giving up on North Carolina.
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the main super PAC aligned with the party's leadership, said this month it would cancel its remaining North Carolina ads. It had already spent about $32 million backing Republican Michael Whatley, who trails Democrat Roy Cooper in polls. A separate GOP group, Old North Action, had earlier removed $6.5 million of October reservations there.
The cash is being redirected. Texas has emerged as the biggest battleground. Republicans spent $122 million there in September and have reserved another $66 million, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Much of it supports nominee Ken Paxton.
Ohio is the other major commitment, with SLF set to spend roughly $40 million in October. SLF has also booked about $17 million in Maine and roughly $14 million in Iowa. Its Alaska reservation is smaller, at about $5 million.
The party is also reaching into traditionally Republican states that have been seeing growing Democrat numbers in polls. SLF has reserved more than $8 million in Kansas to help Senator Roger Marshall. It has also committed $5 million in South Carolina to help Senator Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews.
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AdImpact data show Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million in Senate battleground advertising through September 30. The advantage is less decisive than it looks. GOP-aligned outside groups pay more per ratings point than candidates do, and Republican bookings in Texas came late, when airtime was scarce and costly.
The shift reflects a harder national environment for the party. Republicans hold 53 seats and can lose three and still control the chamber, since the vice president breaks ties. The party is now defending Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, all carried by President Trump by double digits in 2024. Its pickup chances in Georgia have also dimmed, according to one analysis.
Reservations can be changed or cancelled at any time before November 3. The ad-tracking data also do not show every group's spending in every race.

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