Gravitas | Is Trump playing a double game with Iran?

As the protracted Iran war drags on and Trump fears adverse political costs in the upcoming midterm polls, fears were growing that the US is mulling fresh strikes on Iran. However, the US president backtracked yet again and ruled out attacking Iran prior to the midterm polls. While claiming that the US is having productive talks with Iran, Trump stressed that the naval blockade will remain in force. He added, and I am quoting him, “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also confirmed that both sides are exchanging messages through mediators. He revealed that Iran had received US views on its seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and would respond soon.

However, a key question arises: Is Trump playing a double game with Iran?

Despite his public ambivalence about restarting strikes, the Pentagon has reportedly developed a plan that can be carried out even before the midterms.

According to The New York Times, senior officials led by US Vice President JD Vance discussed this plan at a meeting at Camp David last week. Lasting about three days, the plan entails strikes on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, its energy facilities, as well as IRGC command posts and headquarters.

While USS George Washington is the only remaining warship in West Asia at present, the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, carrying around 9,000 troops, will reach the region soon. By the end of this month, it is estimated that the US naval presence will increase to over 20,000 sailors and Marines, along with hundreds of aircraft.

According to the report, American officials want to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear ambitions first, but this is not acceptable to Tehran.

Now, Iran’s nuclear chief has stressed that the country will neither abandon uranium enrichment nor hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium.

But why is there a lurking fear that Trump may spring a surprise by launching strikes on Iran even before the midterms?

Well, his record in the past is marred by U-turns.

For instance, let’s jog your memory back to March 21, when the war was at its peak. Back then, Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen Hormuz.

Two days later, he postponed the strikes by five days. Citing the request of the Iranian government, he extended the deadline to April 6.

On the next day, he again changed his mind and threatened to wipe out the entire Iranian civilisation.

A day later, the US president called off the strikes and declared a two-week ceasefire.

The same script unfolded in May, when he initially warned of attacking Iran but called off the attack, allegedly at the request of his allies in West Asia.

This is not all. On June 11, he went from threatening to hit Iran very hard to hinting at an imminent deal-signing ceremony.

Six days later, both sides ultimately signed the 60-day MOU.

Now, America’s preparation for a strike is also being perceived by some observers as a ploy to delay the Israeli general elections, scheduled for October 27.

This is because it is widely believed that Trump cannot resume the strikes without Netanyahu being at the helm of affairs in Israel.

Amid the ongoing global backlash, a new Israeli prime minister may not want to continue the war against Iran.

Iran remains undeterred by the US threat, though. The Iranian military has made it clear that it is ready to carry out pre-emptive strikes should circumstances require it.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also affirmed that the peace negotiations will succeed only without pressure or threats.

Meanwhile, emotional scenes unfolded in San Diego as USS Abraham Lincoln arrived back at its home port after a record deployment of 265 consecutive days at sea. This included a lengthy stint in West Asia for the Iran war.

Families of servicemen welcomed their loved ones, whom they could not see for almost a year. There were tears of joy as more than a hundred new dads met their babies for the first time.