Could Trump's attempt to seize Iran’s Kharg Island risk troops’ lives and still fail to end war?
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Could Trump's attempt to seize Iran’s Kharg Island risk troops’ lives and still fail to end war?")
US President Donald Trump threatened to deploy ground troops to seize Iran’s Kharg Island Photograph: (AFP, Wikimedia Commons)
Iran and its proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, could intensify retaliation by laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and launching drone strikes on targets across the Arabian Peninsula, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
Kharg Island, a small outcrop on the opposite side of the Persian Gulf from US bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, is the centre of Iran’s oil industry, handling around 90 per cent of its exports. Its strategic importance has placed it at the centre of US considerations, as President Donald Trump weighs whether American forces could seize the island to pressure Tehran. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t,” Trump said, signalling that military options remain under review.
Analysts, however, warn that targeting such a critical hub risks wider economic disruption and could further unsettle global energy markets. In a post on Truth Social, Trump also threatened to strike Iran’s broader infrastructure, including desalination plants, warning that if a deal to end the war is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the United States would “blow up and completely obliterate” Iran’s power plants, “oil wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalination plants), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched’.”
A risky operation for US forces
Military experts, quoted by the Associated Press caution that any ground operation would expose US troops to significant danger. Kharg Island lies close to Iran’s mainland, placing forces within range of missiles, drones and artillery. Seizing Kharg Island could escalate the conflict, said Danny Citrinowicz, according to AP, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. Iran and its proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, could intensify retaliation by laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and launching drone strikes on targets across the Arabian Peninsula, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. “It will be hard to take. It will be hard to hold,” Citrinowicz said of Kharg Island. “And it might damage the economy, but not in a way that will force the Iranians to capitulate.”
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Even inserting troops “would be risky and carry the potential for casualties,” wrote AP, quoting Caitlin Talmadge of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He also noted the difficulty of sustaining a presence so near Iranian defences.
Limited impact on ending the war
Kharg Island is about 33 kilometers (21 miles) off Iran’s coast. The US has already struck multiple targets on the island which includes air defenses, a radar site, the airport and a hovercraft base. Despite its strategic value, experts question whether capturing Kharg Island would alter the course of the conflict. The move could damage Iran’s economy, but may not compel Tehran to concede or end hostilities. One analyst described the idea as “a military mission in search of a strategic rationale,” highlighting uncertainty over what tangible outcome such risks would deliver. Others suggest alternatives, such as naval blockades, could exert pressure with fewer risks to personnel.
Seizing the island could provoke retaliation across the region, including attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Iran and its allies have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of a broader conflict. At the same time, a US Navy ship carrying about 2,500 Marines has recently arrived in the Middle East, while at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected soon, alongside another 2,500 Marines being deployed from California, underscoring the scale of the potential escalation.
A high-cost calculation
Kharg Island offers clear leverage over Iran’s oil exports, but the costs of capturing and holding it could be substantial.Experts warn that US troops would be highly vulnerable on Kharg Island due to its close proximity to the Iranian mainland, from where missiles, drones and artillery could be launched, leaving only a limited window for American forces to intercept incoming attacks even with air and naval support. As the conflict intensifies, the question is not only whether the island can be taken, but whether doing so would meaningfully change the outcome.
