'Almost certainly': UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Iran's IRGC behind RAF Fairford threat

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was ‘almost certainly’ behind threats targeting RAF Fairford, marking the strongest attribution of responsibility made by the British government since the incident late last month. Addressing MPs on Monday (October 12), Burnham said the UK would introduce further sanctions against Tehran and the IRGC. However, the incident remains under investigation, with no charges brought against anyone in connection with the episode despite more than two weeks of police inquiries.

Speaking in Parliament about the incident at RAF Fairford, Burnham said, “I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards.” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood also addressed the House of Commons, confirming that Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband had summoned the Iranian ambassador over the incident. She added that the government had imposed sanctions on two individuals accused of conducting espionage in Europe and the United States.

“Miliband will condemn Iran’s continued attempts to undermine our safety. We are also sanctioning two individuals involved in conducting espionage and attacks on behalf of the government of Iran in Europe and the US, and we will not hesitate to take further action to restrict Iran’s capacity to threaten international security,” she said. The incident occurred shortly after midnight on September 27, when five men from London travelled to Whelford, a village adjacent to a base used by the US Air Force, in three white vans. Police released the men on bail the following day after finding no bombs or explosives.

A week later, 12 B-1 bombers were withdrawn from the base amid reports that the United States was concerned about a possible drone attack. The facility had previously been used by US forces during the conflict with Iran in the spring and summer. In the days following the incident, the prime minister had said there were ‘strong indications’ that Iran had been involved. A joint statement issued by the UK, the US and other European allies through the Foreign Office said the UK has also concluded this event demonstrates the IRGC’s continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors.

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Despite the stronger language from the government, the precise nature of the incident at Fairford remains unclear. Some experts have suggested it may have been a ‘feint’ intended to demonstrate that Iran could potentially target a relatively accessible military facility. British sources have repeatedly maintained that Iran does not possess the capability required to carry out what would be a sophisticated drone attack. Nevertheless, the episode appears to have raised concerns in Washington about the security of American military installations across Europe.

The Fairford incident also comes amid what the UK described in the joint statement as a recent campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and US interests. These attacks have been claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI). The United States has detained and indicted Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, whom it accuses of being behind HAYI. However, evidence suggests that attacks linked to Iran may have continued despite the action against the alleged group leader.

Separately, two Iranian nationals, Salam Ahmadyan of Liverpool and Rahman Salehi of Salford, were charged with terrorism offences a week ago. They are accused of attempting to target Manchester’s Jewish community with a homemade chlorine powder bomb. Prosecutors told a magistrates’ court that the pair had been in contact with a third party believed to be in Iran. According to the prosecution, the individual directed them and sent them instructions on how to prepare an explosive device. A trial in the case has been scheduled at the Old Bailey.