El Nino warning: 2027 ‘very likely’ to become hottest year on record as Pacific temperatures surge
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "El Nino warning: 2027 ‘very likely’ to become hottest year on record as Pacific temperatures surge")
El Nino warning: 2027 ‘very likely’ to become hottest year on record as Pacific temperatures surge Photograph: (AFP)
A record-strength El Nino could drive extreme weather worldwide and make 2027 very likely to become the hottest year ever recorded
A powerful El Nino event developing across the Pacific Ocean could become the strongest in living memory, according to a warning from the UK Met office. The naturally occurring climate phenomenon can push up global temperatures and significantly alter weather patterns around the world. Combined with human-driven climate change, the developing event is expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather in several regions.
The Met Office says it is ‘very likely’ that 2027 will become the hottest year ever recorded globally, potentially surpassing the current record set in 2024. Scientists are already seeing indications that El Niño is influencing weather patterns. South Asia's monsoon rainfall has been running below average, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been suppressed. The UK could also face a greater risk of a wet and stormy autumn, with long-range forecasts already pointing towards increasingly unsettled conditions. "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met office. "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years and lasts for roughly a year. Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific. During El Niño, these winds can weaken or even reverse, allowing unusually warm water to move eastwards across the ocean. That warmer water releases substantial amounts of heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures and changing rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.
Scientists generally classify an El Nino event when sea-surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific are at least 0.5C above the long-term average. Current measurements are already more than 2C above normal. According to the latest Met Office forecasts, temperatures in this region could rise beyond 3C above average later this year as the event approaches its peak. Such warming would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950 and could represent the strongest El Niño since at least the 19th century, the Met office says.
The unusually warm water deeper beneath the Pacific could further strengthen the event. Temperatures around 100 metres below the surface are reportedly as much as 8C above normal in some areas, creating a large reservoir of heat that could help sustain and intensify El Nino. Some climate researchers have forecast an even stronger event, potentially reaching 4C above average.
Trending Stories
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
)
)
)
)
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
)
)
)
)
)
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
)
)
)
)
)
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
)
)
)
Is climate change making El Nino stronger?
Scientists are still investigating the relationship between climate change and El Nino. The World Meteorological Organization says there is currently ‘no evidence’ that global warming is increasing the frequency or strength of El Nino events. However, the question remains an active area of scientific research.
A 2021 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that El Nino intensity appears to have increased since 1950 compared with the longer historical period extending back to around 1400. Researchers caution, however, that El Nino has varied considerably in strength over thousands of years, making it difficult to establish a direct link between its recent behaviour and human-caused warming. What is much clearer is that El Nino events are now occurring on top of a significantly warmer global climate. As a result, their effects can be amplified.
Why 2027 could be the hottest year on record?
Global temperatures have already climbed by approximately 1.4C since the late 19th century, largely because of human activities including the burning of fossil fuels. El Nino can temporarily add to that warming because large quantities of heat stored in the ocean are released into the atmosphere. The warming effect is particularly significant in the calendar year following the winter peak of an El Nino event. Met Office climate scientist Dr Nick Dunstone said this effect is particularly pronounced in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino. "Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record," he said.
