Why Mexico’s election holds greater significance than ever for the US

With over 98 million eligible voters, around 70,000 candidates, and over 20,000 public offices up for contention, Mexico's general election scheduled for June 2 is set to become the largest in the country's history.

For the first time in history, the country is likely to elect its first female president. The two front-runners are both women – Claudia Sheinbaumof the Morena party, who is backed by the governing coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, and Xóchitl Gálvez, who is backed by a coalition of opposition parties.

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Mexico's election gains significance as it coincides with the US presidential election, an event that occurs once every 12 years, and arrives during a period of transition in the relationship between the two nations.

“The years when all the US wanted a safe and stable Mexico are over. Now it is also interested in a country with good public policy,” said Rafael Fernández de Castro Medina, director of the Center for US-Mexico Studies at the University of California, San Diego, pointing to the increasing number of Latinos in the US and the two countries’ growing ties.

Here why the US-Mexico relationship will be influenced by Sunday’s vote.

The economy

Mexico became United States’ top trading partner last year, surpassing China and Canada.

According to experts, this is because of geopolitical issues like pandemic, the legacy of Trump’s trade war against China, and the war in Ukraine.

The rearrangement of supply chains nearer to home enhanced US imports from Mexico and its investment in the country.

Central to enabling this shift was the establishment of the USMCA trade agreement, which was implemented in 2020 among Mexico, the United States, and Canada.

However, Mexico’s compliance with the USMCA has been a subject of disagreement between the administration of Mexico’s current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and those of both US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

“The next president of Mexico will have to deal with a series of legal disputes that the United States, supported by Canada, has filed within the framework of the USMCA,” said Lila Abed, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center.

“From López Obrador’s ban on the import of transgenic corn for human consumption; the shift towards a nationalist energy policy, which has affected US investments in electricity and hydrocarbons, as well as the little importance given to clean energies,” Abed said.

Migration

While migration across the countries’ is a shared concern, the matter is much lower on Mexican politicians’ agenda than in the US.

According to Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas website, “the speeches of Sheinbaum and Gálvez on migration are neither very strong nor very unlike from each other, nor do they address too much what to do with migrants in the country."

"Evidence of this lies in the focus during the recent presidential debate, where the discussion of migration primarily centered on Mexican migrants residing in the US. Candidates addressed this issue to appeal to potential voters north of the border and the sizable and influential Latino community, largely fueled by remittances," she added.

¨Trump didn’t have to build the wall because Mexico is the wall,” said Zissis.

She said the next Mexican government will need to assume responsibility for large migrant population.

(With inputs from agencies)