US midterms 2026: Why the Latino vote could shape control of Congress

With the 2026 US midterm elections approaching, Latino voters are emerging as an important voting bloc in the battle for control of Congress. The elections will decide which party holds the majority in the US House and Senate for the next two years.

More than 68 million Hispanics live in the United States, accounting for roughly 20% of the country’s population and making them the second largest racial or ethnic group. Their political influence is particularly strong in states such as New Mexico, California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, as well as in Colorado, New Jersey and New York.

Their votes could be significant in closely contested House races, where a relatively small number of competitive seats can determine which party controls the chamber.

Why Latino voters are shifting

Latino voters played a key role in Donald Trump’s 2024 victory as many Hispanic voters moved towards the Republican Party. However, recent polling suggests that their views have shifted ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Among 800 registered Latino voters surveyed in September, 69% disapproved of Trump’s performance as president, while 59% said they wanted Democrats to win the November elections. Only 35% preferred Republicans to control Congress.

A recent NBC survey found that high prices and Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement are major concerns among Latino voters. His approval rating among the group stands at 27%.

Two-thirds said Trump’s deportation policies had gone too far, while three-quarters disapproved of his handling of the economy and cost of living.

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Economy, prices remain key concerns

Latino voters now have more negative views of the Republican Party than at any point since 2016. Democrats hold leads on issues including the economy, immigration, cost of living, corruption and healthcare.

The change is particularly sharp on the economy. In 2024, Latino voters gave Trump a 4-point advantage over then Vice President Kamala Harris on handling the economy. In the latest survey, Democrats hold a 21-point advantage on the same issue.

Overall, Democrats lead Republicans by 24 points among Latino voters on which party they want to control Congress, at 59% to 35%.

Cost of living is the biggest concern for many Latino voters. About 78% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue, while 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy. Disapproval also stands at 68% on foreign policy and 69% on immigration.

Nearly two-thirds, or 65%, said Trump’s policies had hurt economic conditions. Only 23% said they had helped.

Inflation and cost of living were the most important issues for 33% of Latino voters, while 52% ranked them among their top two concerns. Those who named cost of living as their top issue preferred a Democratic Congress by 22 points, compared with a 4-point Republican advantage among the same group in 2024.