RTP | Is Brazil headed towards a complete shift to the right? Lula vs Bolsonaro

Is Brazil headed towards a complete shift to the right?

The answer to this will decide the course of South America's political journey.

The battle between Brazil’s veteran left-wing leader and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is inching closer to a conclusion.

After the first round, it is Flavio Bolsonaro who has entered the runoff with the lead.

With virtually all votes counted, Flavio secured about 47% of the valid vote, compared with roughly 45% for Lula.

With no outright winner, Brazil now heads for a decisive second round on October 25.

Beyond the numbers, it is also a contest over what political direction Brazil and Latin America take next.

It is Bolsonaro's Liberal Party versus Lula's Workers' Party.

If Flavio Bolsonaro's surname is his biggest political asset, it is a challenge too because he has to live up to how his father, Jair Bolsonaro, transformed Brazil's conservative movement.

Jair Bolsonaro was later convicted over a plot to overturn the 2022 election result, which he lost to Lula, and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence.

His son has taken up the political mantle, and Flavio's first-round performance shows that the Bolsonaro political brand remains a significant force in Brazil.

So what does Flávio Bolsonaro's rise mean for Brazil's relationship with Donald Trump?

The US president has made no secret of his interest in Brazil's political direction.

Trump has hosted Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House and has publicly praised him, calling him quite: "A smart young man who loves his country very much."

On the other hand, his relationship with Lula has become increasingly complicated over tariffs.

The Trump administration imposed additional tariffs on Brazilian imports, affecting a significant portion of Brazil's exports to the United States.

Lula accused Washington of interfering in Brazil's affairs. Suddenly, an election inside Brazil became entangled with a much larger argument: who gets to decide Brazil's political and economic future?

Lula's message has increasingly been that Brazil should not allow foreign governments to dictate its choices. This argument has particular resonance because Trump's administration has become more openly aligned with conservative political forces across Latin America.

But in contrast, Flavio represents a very different foreign-policy orientation. His campaign has positioned itself closer to the conservative governments and movements that have been gaining ground across the region.

The campaign has revolved heavily around crime, the cost of living, corruption, household debt and concerns about public finances.

Brazil's economy has continued to grow, and unemployment and inequality have improved, but concerns over living costs and government debt remain politically important.

After the first round, Flavio declared that Brazil was witnessing the "end of the era" of Lula's Workers' Party.

Lula, meanwhile, has another campaign to fight. At 80, he is seeking an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive presidential term. His response after the result was straightforward: the first campaign is over; a new campaign begins now.

Flávio has momentum; Lula has experience.

Neither has won yet.

All eyes are now on October 25 as the battle between two political legacies unfolds.