The Verdict | You can jail Bolsonaro, but can you kill Bolsonaroism?

Jair Bolsonaro is behind bars. His name was not on Brazil's presidential ballot. But if the first round of Brazil's election proved anything, it is that Bolsonaro's political movement is nowhere near dead.

His son, Flávio Bolsonaro, has stormed into the presidential runoff after securing just over 47 percent of the valid vote, finishing ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who received just over 45 percent.

The two will now meet again on October 25.

On paper, this is Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro.

Politically, it is something much bigger.

It is a referendum on whether Bolsonaroism can outlive Bolsonaro.

A surname becomes a political movement

Four years ago, Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro for the presidency. Bolsonaro would subsequently be convicted over an attempt to overturn that result and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

For Bolsonaro's opponents, his downfall appeared to offer an opportunity to turn the page.

Instead, his son is now within touching distance of the presidency.

That should force Brazil's political establishment to confront an uncomfortable reality: removing a politician does not necessarily remove the grievances that created his movement.

Flávio Bolsonaro's performance cannot simply be explained by loyalty to his father.

Brazilian voters remain concerned about the cost of living, public security, corruption, household debt and the direction of the economy. Lula's government can point to improvements in unemployment and inequality, but statistics do not always translate into how voters feel at the supermarket, at home or on the streets.

That disconnect has created fertile ground for the Brazilian right.

Brazil's Trump connection

There is also an international dimension.

Flávio Bolsonaro is politically aligned with US President Donald Trump, who has publicly praised him. Lula, meanwhile, has accused Washington of attempting to interfere in Brazil's politics — allegations the United States has rejected.

But the more important story extends beyond Trump himself.

Across Latin America, voters in several countries have recently turned towards right-wing governments and candidates promising tougher security policies, economic reform and a rejection of established political elites.

Brazil may now become the biggest prize in that political realignment.

Latin America's largest economy choosing another Bolsonaro would reverberate far beyond Brasília — from Washington to Beijing and across the Global South.

But Flávio is not Jair

The Bolsonaro name is both Flávio's greatest political asset and potentially his greatest weakness.

It gives him an enormous, already mobilised conservative base. But it also brings the baggage of his father's presidency, the attempted coup case and years of bitter political polarisation.

The runoff therefore presents Flávio with an intriguing challenge.

He must inherit his father's voters without becoming imprisoned by his father's politics.

Lula faces the opposite problem.

At 80, the veteran leftist must convince Brazilians that his experience remains an asset rather than evidence that the country's politics has become trapped between two familiar political dynasties.

And that may ultimately be the most fascinating feature of this election.

Brazil is being offered change — but through one of the most recognisable surnames in Brazilian politics.

Bolsonaroism survives

Whatever happens on October 25, the first round has already delivered a political lesson extending far beyond Brazil.

Political movements rarely disappear simply because their leaders fall.

Donald Trump survived impeachment, prosecution and political defeat. Populist movements across Europe have survived bans, scandals and leadership changes. And now Brazil is discovering that Bolsonaroism does not necessarily require Jair Bolsonaro standing on the ballot.

That does not mean Flávio Bolsonaro has won.

A runoff is a different election. Alliances shift. Tactical voting intensifies. Voters who supported eliminated candidates must choose again.

Lula still has a path back.

But the assumption that Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment would consign his movement to history has already been demolished.

Brazil has separated the politician from the politics.

Jair Bolsonaro may be behind bars.

Bolsonaroism is not.