Opinion: Exit poll comforts BJP; Congress may have to look for scapegoats

Exit polls in the country have gone terribly wrong in the past. They have either underestimated the projected loser or overestimated the predicted winner. At times, these findings have even underestimated the numbers the eventual winner got, and the recent Uttar Pradesh Assembly election is the most recent example of that. On the other hand, exit polls have also been straws in the wind, showcasing a general trend that gets reflected in the actual results. In any case, there is nothing but these numbers one can debate upon until the votes are counted.

Even the stock market goes by the temporary numbers; the Sensex opened on a high on Friday. On Thursday, half a dozen exit polls conducted by psephologists on Gujarat for television news channels were in agreement that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party would gain at least a simple majority and return to power. The margin of victory fluctuated, though. The reaction of the Congress and the BJP was interestingly similar. Both said the outcome on December 18 would be better than predicted, in their respective interests.

Simplistically put, there are two ways to interpret the exit poll results. The first is from the Congress’s angle and the other is from the BJP’s perspective. Most pollsters have projected an improved performance by the Congress as compared to its 2012 showing. This is reflected in the number of seats and vote-share. The Congress can claim that it gave a real fight to the BJP this time around under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. The party can also gloat that it could wean away a sizeable section of the Patidar community, who have for decades staunchly supported the BJP, to its side. The Congress can also say that it succeeded in busting the ‘myth’ of the Gujarat Model, which is especially reflected in the support the party has received in rural Gujarat.

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None of the above is an entirely empty boast. By most exit poll estimates, the Congress did manage to split Patidar votes in its favour; its vote share and seats have gone up since 2012, and it has done well in the rural belt of Gujarat riding on discontent over farmer's distress. However, despite all this tailwind and the formation of a novel caste- grouping comprising the Other Backward Class, the Scheduled Castes and the Patidar community, the best that one exit pollster gave the Congress was 82 seats out of a total 182.

Compare this to the worst that the BJP has been projected to end up with - 99 seats - and it becomes obvious that the Congress’s best falls way short of the requirement. Besides, if this is all that the party can manage after having invested everything it had in the election, and with the starting advantage of more than two decades of anti-incumbency that the BJP ought to have faced, then by all objective reasoning the country’s oldest political party has failed. And, for the record, the best that the BJP has been given by an exit poll agency is 135 seats — with the prospect of a higher eventual number.

If the exit poll results hold on December 18, the Congress will need to find suitable scapegoats. Perhaps the process has been put into motion. The Electronic Voting Machine is a prime suspect, and so is the institution of the Election Commission of India — against whom Congress supporters agitated on the streets in an unprecedented show of hostility. A Congress spokesperson even went to the extent of calling the ECI a “puppet” of the Union Government. The Congress is also likely to attribute its loss to the “divisive” campaign the BJP and launched and for having “misled” the people. It should not be imagined even in the wildest dreams that the newly minted Congress president Rahul Gandhi will be held accountable for the defeat.

From the BJP’s view, the exit poll results are a source of comfort. If they are reflected on December 18, it would mean that the party has overpowered anti-incumbency for two decades. But more importantly, it would have successfully neutralised the Patidar agitation against it, which had threatened to unseat the party. Exit poll findings have shown that the BJP has done well to retain a significant section of the Patidar votes across the State, including in Saurashtra and north Gujarat where the community has a dominant presence in electoral terms. True, it has lost ground in the region according the poll projections, to the Hardik Patel factor which worked in the Congress’s favour, but not to the extent of staring at a catastrophe.

Going by the exit poll findings, the BJP has not just contained the Patidar damage but also managed to compensate for the loss by winning over a majority of the tribal and OBC votes. In the run-up to the two-phased election, commentators had observed that the party could work on the discontent among the OBCs over the Congress’s support to Patidar reservation. This it seems to have done with results that offer a measure of self-satisfaction. According to one exit poll finding, even a significant section of the Thakore community to which OBC leader and Congressman Alpesh Thakore belongs, voted for the BJP. In sum, the Congress, in its desire to run after the Patidar votes, has lost the tribal and the OBC voters — all of whom the BJP gratefully lapped up.

Having outwitted the Congress in caste calculation — the major plank on which for the Congress was overly dependent to snatch power — the BJP was left with no real challenge. The ‘lack of development’ narrative against the BJP simply did not work for the Congress. The Congress’s other offensives, such as personal attacks by its senior leaders and allies on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the after-thought of ‘me-too Hindu’ campaign by Rahul Gandhi, served to weaken the opposition party’s narrative. If the exit poll results get vindicated on December 18, Rahul Gandhi will have begun his innings as president on a dismal note.

The impact could be cascading; Assembly elections are due for a clutch of important States in the next year, including in Karnataka — the only major State besides Punjab where the Congress is in power. And there is the Lok Sabha poll, which is less than two years away. If indeed the Congress is the vanquished one, come Monday, there is one lesson that it must learn at all costs: It does not pay to outsource leadership. It had paid the price in Uttar Pradesh where it placed its future at Akhilesh Yadav’s doorstep. It did the same in Gujarat, depending more on the HAJ factor (Hardik-Alpesh- Jignesh) rather than on its core strengths and issues which it alone had the credibility to raise.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL).