Is Iran war costing Americans $29 billion or $1 trillion? Here’s what we know
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The Pentagon estimates the Iran war cost at $29 billion, but experts like Linda Bilmes warn long-term expenses for munitions, equipment replacement, and veterans’ care could reach $1 trillion.
The US war against Iran has already cost nearly $29 billion, according to the Pentagon, but independent experts warn that the final price tag could eventually climb to as much as $1 trillion once long-term military and veterans’ costs are fully accounted for. On Tuesday (May 12), Jay Hurst, who is performing the duties of Pentagon Comptroller, told a House Appropriations Committee hearing that the ongoing military campaign against Iran had cost “closer to $29 billion”, revising upwards an earlier estimate of $25 billion presented to Congress just two weeks ago.
According to CNN, the revised assessment reflects updated operational expenses and the growing cost of repairing and replacing military equipment used in the conflict.
“So, at the time of testimony from the House Armed Services Committee, it was $25 billion, but the joint staff team and the comptroller team are constantly looking at that estimate, and so now we think it is closer to 29. That is because of updated repair and replacement of equipment costs and also just general operational costs to keep people in theatre,” Hurst said.
Hurst later told a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing that the latest estimate still excluded the cost of damage sustained by US military bases across the Middle East. “We just do not have a good estimate at this time,” he added.
CNN reported that previous internal assessments had suggested the true financial burden could rise substantially higher once damaged infrastructure and depleted military assets are fully replaced. One source cited by the broadcaster estimated the total could eventually reach between $40 billion and $50 billion.
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However, war budgeting expert Linda Bilmes of Harvard Kennedy School believes even those figures dramatically understate the long-term financial impact of the conflict. In a research paper released last week, Bilmes argued that the total cost of the Iran war could ultimately hit $1 trillion when future military expansion, veterans’ healthcare obligations and defence spending are included. “I am certain we will spend one trillion dollars on the Iran war. Perhaps we have already racked up that amount,” Bilmes stated.
According to the research, the initial days of the conflict alone cost the US at least $16 billion because of the rapid depletion of expensive missile systems and intense operational activity.
Bilmes estimated that the US is currently spending close to $2 billion per day on short-term operational costs, including missiles, interceptor systems, aircraft carrier deployments, combat pay, maintenance and replacement of damaged assets.
“We are spending down munitions at an extraordinarily fast pace,” she said, noting that the US had fired more Patriot missiles in the first four days of the Iran conflict than it had supplied to Ukraine during the previous four years. Bilmes also warned that Pentagon inventory valuations fail to reflect the significantly higher cost of replacing modern weapons systems.
“For example, the Tomahawk missiles being used are valued at around $2 million each in inventory, but replacing them today costs $3 to $3.5 million. Patriot missiles in the inventory were valued at $1 to $2 million, but newer versions cost $4 to $5 million each,” she said.
