US midterms 2026: Democrats close in on 260 seats, poised for historic House majority since 1991

Democrats are heading toward a potentially historic victory in the 2026 midterm elections, with their House majority growing to levels not seen in decades. CNN projects that Democrats have won more than 250 House seats, recording a net gain of around 40 seats. Their total could reach or even surpass 260 once all races are decided. Such an outcome would give Democrats a majority of approximately 85 seats, making it their largest House majority since the early 1990s, when the party was nearing the end of decades of dominance in the chamber.

The latest House results

After flipping additional seats on Thursday afternoon, Democrats have won or are leading in 259 congressional districts. If the current margins hold, Republicans would finish with 174 seats, while two Louisiana races are headed for runoffs.

Democrats currently hold narrow leads of around one percentage point or less in six districts:

• South Carolina's 1st District
• Colorado's 4th District
• Florida's 9th District
• Minnesota's 1st District
• North Carolina's 5th District
• Tennessee's 4th District

How large could the Democratic House majority become?

If Democrats reach 260 seats, it would mark their largest House majority since the 1991-93 Congress, when the party controlled 267 seats. Democrats held 258 seats in the following Congress and secured 257 seats after former President Barack Obama's sweeping 2008 election victory brought the party back into power.

With more than 250 seats, Democrats have already secured a larger House majority than any Republican majority since the Great Depression. The GOP's highest total during that period was 247 seats following the 2014 election. A 260-seat Democratic majority would mean the party controlled 60% of all available House seats. Meanwhile, Democrats are winning between 54% and 56% of Senate seats, depending on the outcome of the remaining races in Alaska and Mississippi.

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How significant are the Democrats' gains?

Democrats appear poised to gain approximately 50 House seats once all election results are finalised. If they win all 259 districts where they currently hold leads, their net gain would stand at 44 seats. That would represent the third-largest House gain in the past 50 years, behind the Republicans' 63-seat gain in 2010 and their 54-seat gain in 1994.

It would also exceed the Democrats' strongest recent midterm performances, including their 41-seat gain in 2018 and 31-seat gain in 2006. However, the number of seats flipped could make the 2026 results even more significant. Republicans made substantial gains in 2010 partly because Democrats had entered the election with a large House majority following the 2008 election. This gave the GOP numerous opportunities to target conservative-leaning districts that Democrats had previously won.

Similarly, Republicans chipped away at a nearly 260-seat Democratic majority during the 1994 midterm elections. The circumstances in 2026 were considerably different. The election began with the House almost evenly divided, with Republicans holding 220 seats and Democrats controlling 215. Democrats also faced Republican redistricting efforts in several states, where new congressional maps were drawn to create more conservative-leaning districts. Those efforts ultimately did not produce the expected results.

Democrats' House popular vote advantage

Another significant measure of the Democrats' performance is their advantage in the national House popular vote. Democrats currently lead by approximately 12 percentage points. That margin could increase in the coming days as additional votes are counted, particularly in western states that typically lean Democratic. There are, however, some factors to consider when examining the popular vote figures.

California's top-two primary system means that several congressional races feature two Republican candidates or two Democratic candidates rather than contests between candidates from both major parties. This has somewhat affected the overall comparison. Nevertheless, the national popular vote remains an important indicator of the scale of the Democratic victory.

The 2026 election will mark only the second time since 1982 that a party has won the House popular vote by a double-digit margin. The other instance was the 2008 election, when Democrats secured an 11-point advantage, according to data from the Brookings Institution. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 13 percentage points was in the post-Watergate election of 1976.