India should be careful about Iran's softening of stance towards Pakistan and China

By:Tridivesh Singh Maini & Sandeep Sachdeva*

New Delhi,while consistently expanding strategic and economic ties with the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and Israel, has also sought to strengthen ties with Tehran, which has tense relations with both. The Nuclear Deal of 2015, signed between Iran and (P5+1) countries opened new vistas for India in Iran, which is strategically located and is India’s potential gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

During his visit to Iran in 2016, PM Modi signed an agreement, not just committing financial assistanceto the tune of 500 Million USD for phase 1 of the development of the Chabahar Project, but also a three nation agreement with Iran and Afghanistanfor establishing a land, transit and trade corridor. India will build a 500-km rail line from Chabahar port from the southern coast of Iran to Zahedan, close to the Afghan border, at a cost of $1.6 billion as part of the transit corridor to Afghanistan. "It will open new routes for India, Iran, and Afghanistan to connect among themselves," said PM Modi with regard to the corridor.

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India’s main aim was to get access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan has continuously opposed India’s entry into the APTTA(Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement), even though Afghanistan has been in favour of India joining the agreement. APTTA is a transit trade agreement as it is quite evident from its name. Currently, Afghan goods can come into India, but trucks stop at Wagah (Pakistani side of the border). India, however, has been deprived of land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

There have been some hitches with regard to the Chabahar project kicking off by 2018. The companies which are to develop customised equipment jetties and container terminals were not willing to take part in the bidding process. The banks were not ready to facilitate the financial transactions involving Iran due to the uncertain policies of Trump administration towardsIran. Apart from this, there was a delay in loan disbursement of $ 150 millionwith India and Iran blaming each other for the delay. Transport minister, Nitin Gadkari who attended Iranian President Rouhani’s swearing in on August 5, 2017, categorically stated:

"India and Iran have been historically sharing special ties. We are keen on developing Chabahar Port and are hopeful of starting operations in 12 to 18 months."

US-Iran ties

India, however, needs to carefully observe Trump’s warnings to Iran on the nuclear deal. Iran has categorically stated, that it will quit the Nuclear Deal if more sanctions are imposed. Rouhani's exact words were:"Iran could quit the nuclear deal within hours if the US imposes more sanctions."

Even though Iran has followed the conditions of the deal, Trump has threatened about imposing sanctions. The Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,however, has made it clear on umpteen occasions, that the US will not scrap the deal. Interestingly, Tillerson has also stated, that he and the US President have differences over the deal. Whereas President Trump is in favour of calling off the deal and imposing new sanctions, secretary of state Tillerson subscribes to the view, that America should not strike the deal rather engage with Iran to bring stability in the neighbourhood, especially in Iraq and Syria by holding it accountable.

Given India’s increasingly close ties with the US, and importance of Iran in the context of connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, striking a balance may be a challenge given Trump’s unpredictability.

Iran-Pakistan ties

New Delhi should also observe carefully Iran’s support for Pakistan, particularly after Trump’s speech on August 21 where he warned Pakistan to take more concrete action against terror groups operating on Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Iran came to the defence of Pakistan, with foreign ministry spokesman, Bahram Ghasemi saying:

"What presently the US is highlighting to condemn other countries with is the result of years of wrong and inappropriate policies of Americans in the countries of the region, especially Afghanistan.”

Iran already has strong economic ties with China, and it moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India. New Delhi has been trying to jointly work with both Afghanistan and Iran much to the chagrin of the Pakistan army.

Significantly, in May 2017, Iran had taken a tough stance against certain terror groups operating from Pakistan, warning that it would hit the bases of Sunni militant groups operating in Pakistan. In April 2017, Ten Iranian border guards had been killed by militants and Iran blamed Sunni groups operating from Pakistan. Major General Mohammad Baqeri, head of the Iranian armed forces had said, “If the terrorist attacks continue, we will hit their safe havens and cells, wherever they are.”

Middle East

New Delhi should also be watching the gradual softening of Iran towards Saudi Arabia and Turkey. On the sidelines of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Istanbul earlier this month, the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met and exchanged greetings. Earlier this month Iranian chief of staff of the armed forces, Major-General Mohammad Baqeri paid a visit to Turkey to explore possible synergies in counter-terrorism and the Syrian conflict. This is a clear indication of a significant improvement in bilateral ties. It has also been reported, that their high-level officials are likely to meet again.

While New Delhi has strong ties with both, and this has been a challenge in the past, the tensions were also to the benefit of India. Due to tensions between Iran and GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, New Delhi could also pressurise both sides to urge Pakistan to take action against terror groups. Apart from strengthening of India-US ties, Saudi Arabia has been apprehensive about India getting too close to Iran. This has resulted in Riyadh not just adopting a more nuanced stand on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and extraditing terrorists, but also strengthening security cooperation with India.

While currently, India is bogged down with numerous domestic challenges, and other foreign policy priorities, especially with China,a close watch should be kept on Iran’s next moves not just in the context of its deal with the US, but also onits ties with Pakistan and GCC countries.

*Sandeep Sachdeva is an Independent Policy Analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonipat.