How India can counter China's growing influence in Asia

The dynamics of bilateral relations between India, US and China are swiftly changing under a rapidly transforming global order. The last week saw two significant developments underlining this commotion and churning in the international order, and India might find itself at the helm of affairs here.

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The Asia visit of US Secretary of State came against the backdrop of the recently concluded 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Strong signs of an emerging multipolarity made themselves highly evident during the last few days when both US and China pushed for a greater assertion over the international affairs.

Tillerson's visit to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India was an attempt by the US to mark its territory in terms of its strategic dominance and rope in India as an important ally to the US in the region. The evolving strategic collaboration between Washington and New Delhi comes after the US President Donald Trump announced his South Asia policy and sought a greater role for India in Afghanistan.

The visit, which is said to have sent a strong message to Pakistan on the issue of terrorism, also seeks to prop up India as a useful balancer to the developing China-Pakistan axis in South Asia. The importance of the timing of this visit is also not lost on observers, as it comes barely days after Tillerson’s speech on “Defining our relationship with India for the next century” at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). In his speech, Tillerson laid great emphasis on a “free and open Indo-Pacific” while being highly critical of China's “less responsible” rise.

Tillerson's attempts at strengthening America's position in the subcontinent were simultaneous to the 19th National Congress of the CPC which saw the emergence of President Xi Jinping as a very strong leader in the history of the country, with a stature next only to that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

Conscious of the world that was carefully observing the proceedings of the 19th NC, Xi laid a great emphasis on China's role as a world leader, and its endeavour to achieve a great power status. The repeated insistence on the importance of a globalised world and the significance of China's leadership clearly highlighted China's intentions to outgrow Deng Xiaoping's “biding our time” strategy and aggressively pursue Xi's “China dream”.

The consolidation of power in Xi Jinping will be critical to the Chinese foreign policy which will expectantly grow more assertive, both militarily and diplomatically. China, under Xi, will be looking to create and strengthen alternative global institutions, transform existing norms and push for regional supremacy. All this will happen as the US grows more isolationist in its global outlook. The daunting realisation that a more assertive China will be detrimental to the US' strategic interests in Asia, was probably one of the many reasons behind Tillerson's visit to the region.

In the face of the changing dynamics, however, India will find itself at the helm of affairs. The regional confrontation between India and China is set to increase as no formidable changes or major breaks could be detected in China's neighbourhood policy. In fact, the 19th NC saw the election of China's top diplomat and Special Representative for India-China border talks to the powerful 25 member politburo and is expected to rise further and become a vice premier in charge of foreign affairs.

The elevation of top diplomats to the powerful Central Committee and the politburo signifies the renewed commitment of President Xi in strongly pursuing China's regional dominance and countering the US influence in Asia-Pacific. India will be faced with an ever-rising China and can, therefore, expect more frequent skirmishes at the border, and at multilateral institutions.

This changing scenario will require India to carefully re-calibrate its relations. A deepening engagement with the US at this point, along with an alternative alliance with Japan and Australia will help strengthen India's place in the global politics. It will also provide a regional alternative to China for smaller countries in the Asia-Pacific. A robust India-US alliance will also work to offset China's dominance in the multilateral institutions. The US may be looking at a re-pivot to Asia and India might just be its best bet in the region.