WION Edit: What would an unstable Iran mean for the world?

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani . Photograph:( Reuters )

WION Delhi Nov 20, 2019, 01.29 PM (IST)

We have seen the scale of the protest in Iran. We have brought you the responses. And we have also looked at the causes - both internal and external.

We have summarised the reasons why America targets Iran. On WION Edit, we look at what happens next. 

What would an unstable Iran mean for the world?

Peace is already eroding. The erosion began when the US walked out of the nuclear deal despite Iran's compliance.

Then it imposed crippling sanctions. Saudi oil tankers were attacked, oil supplies were disrupted.

Then there's Lebanon - the home of Hezbollah - it's at boiling point. The number of Hezbollah fighters has doubled in the last decade.

If Iran's regime disintegrates, it will use the Hezbollah to bring down the whole region.

Pushed to the wall, an aggressive Iran will also target Israel. It openly backs Palestinian factions in the west bank. 

It openly threatens the annihilation of Israel. On the other side, the situation is fragile in the strait of Hormuz. Since the month of May, six oil tankers and a spy drone of the US have been attacked.

Such attacks may escalate if Iran is pushed to the brink. In other words, political instability inside Iran affects peace outside. It has political clout and it has a lot of oil.

Iran holds 10 per cent of the world's proven oil reserves, 15 per cent of gas. Until a few months back, it was the world's second-largest oil exporter.

Today Iran is isolated and sanctioned, it cannot sell oil even to traditional importers like China and India. They have stopped buying under the US pressure.

But Iran's economic survival solely depends on oil exports. Iran is hoping that a cut in global oil production will force other countries to return to it.

Which is what explains the attacks on Saudi oil tankers, disrupt supply and attract buyers.

The rivalries are historic: 
Iran vs Israel
Iran vs Saudi Arabia
Iran vs US

It is important to not let them spill over, that would be bad news - both for regional peace and the global economy.

Iran failed to utilise the advantages of the nuclear agreement. It failed to diversify its economy.

It failed to meet the growth expectations of its people, and thus, is facing their anger.

Any external bids to stir this pot will only mean trouble for all. But an unstable Iran can be volatile and nothing good can come out of that.

(Disclaimer: WION Edit is the channel's take on the big events of the world)