Opinion:?BJP's catchlines which helped to win Gujarat elections

As voting for the final phase of Gujarat assembly ends today, a look back at how the motif of Modi’s campaign rhetoric has evolved.

2002: Aggressive BJP harvests polarisation

Gujarat has been called a laboratory after Narendra Modi was sent from Delhi to take over the reins of the state. During the 2002 campaign, Modi and BJP had a simple job. The polarisation after the communal riots ensured all they had to do was to harvest the communal rift. The Congress, at that time the opposition party in thecentre as well as the state, was clueless. It probably thought that to speak on justice for Muslims will impact their poll prospects. Six months after the riots broke happened the Akshardham terror attack, which took place just before the polls, ensured that Modi made it a Mia Musharraf vs Modi theme for the campaign that BJP won handsomely.

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2007: CM Modi firmly at the helm, Congress tries to get aggressive

Buoyed by its 2004 Loksabha victory and winning 12 seats in the state, Congress took CM Modi head on. By this time, Mr Modi had already been established as the supreme leader of Gujarat, leaving behind, among others, Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta. As riot victims were still waiting for justice, polarisation continued unabated. Since the Congress government was at the centre, it became Modi’s prime target.

Congress, in turn, did what it could not dare in 2002, called Modi Maut ka Saudagar (merchant of death) suggesting his direct role in riots. This backfired big time. BJP made it Gujarati Pride versus Congress rule of Sonia and Ahmed Mia. BJP’s tally came down by 10 but it won the state.

2012: ‘Gujarat Model’ emerges as social media booms, Congress reels under graft charges

2012 was PM Modi’s last election as CM. The BJP had surged ahead by its clever use of new social media tools like the Facebook and Twitter. It boosted the ‘unique Gujarat Model’ — sometimes truthfully and other times not. But Gujarat, development and Modi became synonymous terms even as Congress suffered huge image crisis during the Anna Hazare agitation of 2011-12.

Now Mr Modi needed no Praveen Togadiya or Acharya Dharmendra to serve as development planks. It soon became evident that Chief Minister Modi has the potential to be India's prime minister. Despite the party having 40 per cent vote, the Congress was unable to compete and lost to BJP again.

2017 ‘Gujarat Model’ goes on back burner and Pakistan returns

A 15-year rule under one leader is really a long time in politics. What worked in 2012 is looking doubtful as crowd size at Modi rally was shrinking. By now, the BJP was no longer the exclusive player in the social media nor the biggest crowd puller. Opponents had taken a leaf out of BJP’s books, including the Patidars.

The disgruntled youth flocking Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani’s rallies were probably 6-10 year old during 2002-2007 but have been denied decent primary education; Gujarat ranks 33 among 35 states in terms of providing access to schools. Anti-incumbency ensured that basic issues, such as primary education, infant mortality, unemployment started factoring in.

Once the backbone of the party, Patels had turned into BJP’s staunch baiters. With the presence of 15 per cent or more in most seats - they have potential to cover the gap between Congress and BJP. Add Dalit and OBC votes to it, and BJP suddenly looked vulnerable.

From ‘Mia Musharraf’ in 2002, ‘Gujarat Model’ in 2012 to again ‘Pakistan connection’ in 2017, Modi had tried various catch-lines for his quest for Gujarat.

As desperate BJP tries to cling on to something or other, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s secret ‘Pakistan connection,' the small traders were upset with BJP’s GST and note-ban decisions, and Rahul and Hardik were pulling a huge crowd.

If BJP loses, it would be its second major loss after Bihar, wherein caste mobilisation of RJD-JDU-Congress had overcome religious polarisation of BJP in 2015. If Hardik - Jignesh - Alpesh’s caste conscious agenda helps Congress win, it will once again prove that religious mobilisation can be countered by caste mobilisation.

If BJP still manages the victory, an emboldened BJP may opt for an unprecedentedly vicious 2019 campaign to beat anti-incumbency.

(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).