Nitish Kumar or Tejashwi Yadav: Who is preferred CM face in Bihar Elections 2025? Pre-poll survey reveals

The upcoming Bihar Elections 2025 will be a neck-to-neck fight between BJP-JDU-led NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan or INDIA alliance, according to a new pre-poll survey. The pollsters are busy analysing the mood of Bihari voters after the Election Commission announced the polls dates. The Assembly polls will take place next month in two phases. With the fate of incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav at stake, Bihari voters are ready to decide if they would give another chance to the BJP-JDU alliance or would pick up a new face for their state.

Read More | Will Nitish Kumar become Bihar's CM again? Here's what pre-poll survey predicts about state's future

What pre-poll survey revealed?

A pre poll survey by Vote Vibe poll revealed a highly competitive race between the BJP-JDU-led NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc), with just a 1.6 per cent difference in vote share separating them.

Here are the main takeaways from the pre-poll survey:

• NDA predicted to lead marginally with 41.3 per cent vote share, while Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc) follows closely at 39.7%.
• Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred Chief Minister candidate (35 per cent), followed by Nitish Kumar (23.4 per cent) and Prashant Kishor (13.8 per cent)
• Jan Suraaj, the new party led by Prashant Kishor, is favored by around 9 per cent of respondents.
• Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and AIMIM have support levels of 2.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.
• NDA holds a 6 per cent lead among women voters; Mahagathbandhan leads among men by 2 per cent.
• Youth voters (18-34) favour Mahagathbandhan; voters aged 35+ prefer the NDA.
• Mahagathbandhan leads among Muslim-Yadav and Scheduled Caste communities.
• NDA is preferred by Upper caste, NYOBC, and EBC groups.
• Dalit votes are split closely, with no clear majority.
• Despite strong anti-incumbency sentiments (48.6 per cent) against Nitish Kumar’s government, the NDA still leads in vote share.

Read more | Who ruled Bihar from 2000 to 2020? A look at two decades of elections

Bihar Elections on Nov 6 and Nov 11

Bihar will vote in two phases - on November 6 and November 11. The election results will be announced on November 14. In 2020 state polls, the BJP-JDU alliance defeated the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan with a narrow margin. Nitish Kumar is the incumbent CM of the state after swearing in for the ninth time in 2024. He became the CM after NDA won in 2020. However, in 2022, he shifted his allegiance and joined the Mahagathbandhan, but became the CM again - for the eighth term. This time, Kumar became instrumental in forming yet another anti-BJP grouping - the INDIA alliance, only to exit it in 2024. He patched up with the BJP, that is how he is still the CM.

Read more | Will Maithili Thakur contest Bihar Elections 2025? Who is she and what we know about her meeting with BJP leaders

Ahead of the Bihar Elections 2025, Nitish Kumar has vowed not to shift sides "ever again." The BJP is yet again rowing its boat with Nitish as its oarsman. The Mahagathbandhan is hesitant to project RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as its CM face, despite his commendable performance in the 2020 state elections. This time, the elder Lalu Yadav scion, Tej Pratap Yadav, is not with RJD anymore and has formed his own Janshakti Janta Dal. In the fray is also Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraaj - Delhi media's current favourite and man credited for the victory of many politicians in the country, from PM Modi to Mamata Banerjee. In NDA, there's Modi's ‘Hanuman’ - Union Chirag Paswan - His Lok Janshakti Party has not shied away from expressing its desire for the top post in the state. Apart from regional players like Mukesh Sahni’s VIP party, Paswan's uncle Pashupati Paras, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awami Morcha, there's Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM - whose party won a whopping five seats in the Seemanchal region last elections.