Will Nitish Kumar become Bihar's CM again? Here's what pre-poll survey predicts about state's future
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Will Nitish Kumar become Bihar's CM again? Here's what pre-poll survey predicts about state's future")
Bihar Assembly polls Photograph: (Facebook, PTI)
The Election Commission has set Bihar’s 2025 assembly polls for Nov 6 and 11. A new IANS‑Matrize poll projects the NDA at 49 per cent vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan may get 36 per cent . Nitish Kumar leads as CM favorite, and BJP and RJD top governance preference.
The Election Commission has announced the dates for Bihar Elections 2025. Unlike other states where the focus during Assembly elections is on who will become the next Chief Minister, in Bihar, people are more concerned about whether Nitish Kumar will be the CM again. As the countdown begins, pollsters are busy analysing the mood of the voters on ground. IANS-Matrize News Communications came up with the first opinion polls of the election season in the state.
What IANS-Matrize Opinion poll predict?
The IANS-Matrize News Communications poll, titled “Opinion Poll Report @ Bihar”, explored voter opinions on MLA performance, development schemes, and leadership choices, reflecting the evolving political mood in the state.
- The poll projected the NDA to win with a 49 per cent vote share and 150-160 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly.
- In the poll, 57 per cent of respondents said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity will play a major role in influencing the polls. Another 8 per cent felt it would have a moderate impact.
- According to the poll, BJP is top preferred party with 35 per cent of respondents rating it as the best party for good governance. JD(U) follows at 18 per cent , RJD at 13 per cent , Jan Suraaj at 8 per cent , Congress at 2 per cent, and others share the remaining percentage.
- According to the poll, Nitish Kumar (JD-U) remains the top choice for CM, backed by 42 per cent of voters. Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) stands at 15 per cent. An impressive 9 per cent preference was recorded for Prashant Kishor of Jan Suraaj Party. Chirag Paswan (LJP-Ram Vilas) was the choice for 8 per cent. Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary (BJP) was popular choice only among 3 per cent and Giriraj Singh (BJP) and Upendra Kushwaha (JD-U) also recieved 1 per cent vote each. While 17 per cent of voters remained undecided, and 4 per cent supported other names.
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Vote share projected by the IANS-Matrize Opinion poll
- BJP- 21 per cent
- RJD 21 per cent
- Congress 8 per cent
- JD(U) 18 per cent
- LJP (Chirag Paswan) 6 per cent
- Jan Suraj 7 per cent
- Others (BSP, JMM, Independents, etc.) 7 per cent
Bihar Elections on Nov 6 and Nov 11
Bihar will vote in two phases - on November 6 and November 11, the Election Commission of India announced on Oct 6. The election results will be announced on November 14. In 2020 state polls, the BJP-JDU alliance defeated the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan with a narrow margin. The BJP-JDU alliance won 125 seats (BJP 74, JDU 42, others 9), while the RJD won 75, Congress 19, and others 16. Although JDU was the junior partner in the alliance with fewer seats in its kitty, Nitish Kumar ended up being the Chief Minister of the state, for the seventh time. However, midway through his term, he did what people expected the most from him! He shifted his allegiance and joined the Mahagathbandhan in 2022, taking oath as CM for the eighth term. This time, Kumar became instrumental in forming yet another anti-BJP grouping - the INDIA alliance, only to exit it in 2024. He patched up with the BJP and became the CM again and took oath for the ninth time.
Ahead of the Bihar Elections 2025, Nitish Kumar has vowed not to shift sides "ever again." The BJP is yet again rowing its boat with Nitish as its oarsman. The Mahagathbandhan is hesitant to project RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as its CM face, despite his commendable performance in the 2020 state elections. This time, the elder Lalu Yadav scion, Tej Pratap Yadav, is not with RJD anymore and has formed his own Janshakti Janta Dal. In the fray is also Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraaj - Delhi media's current favourite and man credited for the victory of many politicians in the country, from PM Modi to Mamata Banerjee. In NDA, there's Modi's ‘Hanuman’ - Union Chirag Paswan - His Lok Janshakti Party has not shied away from expressing its desire for the top post in the state. Apart from regional players like Mukesh Sahni’s VIP party, Paswan's uncle Pashupati Paras, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awami Morcha, there's Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM - whose party won a whopping five seats in the Seemanchal region last elections.
