Subduction zone stirring beneath Gibraltar Strait, research warns it may ‘invade’ Atlantic ocean

A once-sleeping subduction zone beneath the Gibraltar Strait is showing signs of stirring, with new research suggesting it could spell changes for the Atlantic Ocean. According to a study published in the journal Geology on February 13, the Gibraltar arc, as it's known, has been quietly creeping westward and might one day "invade" the Atlantic, leading to the gradual closure of the ocean basin.

Lead author Joao Duarte, a geologist and assistant professor at the University of Lisbon, reportedly described the situation as an "invaluable opportunity" to observe a process in its early stages."Studying Gibraltar is an invaluable opportunity because it allows observing the process in its early stages when it is just happening."

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The Gibraltar arc, which began its westward journey around 30 million years ago, has appeared stalled in recent history, prompting speculation about its activity. However, the study suggested it's merely in a period of dormancy that could last another 20 million years.

Using advanced computer models, Duarte and his team simulated the birth and evolution of the subduction zone, noting a decline in its speed around 5 million years ago. They predicted that over the next 20 million years, the arc will gradually push its way through the narrow Gibraltar Strait and into the Atlantic in a process termed "subduction invasion."

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This potential invasion of the Atlantic Ocean could lead to the formation of an Atlantic subduction system akin to the infamous "Ring of Fire" encircling the Pacific Ocean. Such a transformation would involve the recycling of oceanic crust into the mantle through subduction, gradually altering the landscape of the Atlantic.

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"If the movement along the subduction interface were small, the accumulation of the seismic strain would be slow and may take hundreds of years to accumulate," the researchers noted.

As technology allows for more detailed simulations, scientists are gaining a deeper understanding of the complex geological processes shaping our planet's surface. "We can now simulate the formation of the Gibraltar arc with great detail and also how it may evolve in the deep future," saidDuarte.

(With inputs from agencies)