Democrats favoured to win House as US Senate race remains a coin flip
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Democrats favoured to win House as US Senate race remains a coin flip")
US President Donald Trump speaks during a midterm campaign rally at The Mitchell Center of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, Alabama on October 2, 2026 Photograph: (AFP)
With a month to go before the US midterms, Democrats are favoured to win the House while the Senate remains closely contested amid economic uncertainty.
Almost a month away from the US midterms, Democrats are being favoured to win the House while the Senate is close to a coin flip. 470 total federal congressional seats are on the ballot for November 3, 2026. Forecasts mostly favour Democrats as favourites in the generic congressional ballot. Among them are 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. While analysts still posit that some developments in the US-Iran war can flip the polling, for example, if high gas prices and inflation persist, Republicans can lose both chambers; if it eases, Republicans could do better and become Senate favourites.
Polls for the House of Representatives
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives with 218 seats and Democrats at 214 seats. According to the latest poll up to last week, almost all major aggregators put Democrats ahead in the House; Decision Desk gives them a 75% chance, and Nate Silver gives them an 86% chance of winning the House. Decision Desk projects 234 seats for Democrats and 201 for Republicans; Pollwave projects 223 for Democrats and 212 for Republicans; G Elliot Morris projects 34 additional seats to Democrats' tally, while Charlie Cook gives 20. In fact, Charlie Cook refers to the House as a done deal for Democrats. Major pollsters, like PBS, also gave Democrats 12 points lead, Reuters/ Ipsos gives Democrats 7 points lead, and YouGov gives Democrats 8 point lead.
Losing control of the House means Democrats can block new laws and heavily disrupt federal funding, or possess the constitutional power to impeach Trump. Platforms like Kalshi project a 66% chance that President Trump faces a third impeachment before 2028.
Polls for the US Senate
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Out of 35 Senate seats, Republicans hold 22, including the Ohio and Florida specials, and Democrats hold 13. Other 65 seats aren't up this year, and Democrats hold 34 of them. To reach the magic number 51, Democrats need to win 17 of the 35 races. So they need to hold the 13 they already have and flip 4 Republican ones.
As per the Cook Political Report's ratings from late September and Decision Desk HQ's win probabilities, 13 are safe Republicans: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming; 2 are likely Republicans: Nebraska, South Carolina; and Kansas is leaning Republican but could go either way.
9 seats like Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia are safe Democrats, while Georgia and Minnesota are also likely to go Blue if there are no major upsets. North Carolina is expected to flip from Red to Blue, according to Cook, Decision Desk HQ. While 7 others are coin flip can go either way, among them Michigan and New Hampshire are Democratic-held, and the other 5- Ohio, Maine, Texas, Alaska, Iowa are Republican held.
Losing control of the Senate means Trump forfeits his authority over executive appointments, judicial confirmations, and trial procedures. While Republicans are likely to block a complete two-third majority required to remove Trump, he will lose most leadership control domestically. He will still be able to pass executive orders and maintain foreign policy and control of the military.
