Double-digit lead for Trump over Haley in New Hampshire, CNN poll says

A recent CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire reveals that the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary is firmly under the sway of former President Donald Trump. Following his decisive win in Iowa's caucuses, Trump commands 50 per cent support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State. This substantial lead, coupled with the shrinking field of major contenders, positions Trump as the frontrunner in the race.

Trump vs. competitors: Haley's gains not enough

Trump's closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, trails significantly with 39 per cent support. While both candidates have seen an increase in support since the previous poll in early January, Haley's gains, particularly since late summer, have not bridged the gap with Trump. The poll underscores Trump's enduring popularity within the GOP base, overshadowing the appeal of his challengers.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who previously led in early 2023 polling but scaled back efforts in the state, lags far behind with just 6 per centsupport. This places him below the 10 per centminimum required to win delegates according to Republican Party rules, indicating challenges in maintaining momentum.

New Hampshire has historically been perceived as a battleground offering an opportunity to challenge Trump's dominance. However, the latest survey suggests that Trump's popularity within the GOP base and unwavering support from his followers outweigh the appeal of his competitors.

Nikki Haley exhibits significant support among registered undeclared voters (58 per cent) and those ideologically moderate (71 per cent). She also outpaces Trump among voters with college degrees (50 per centHaley to 38 per cent Trump). Despite these gains in specific demographics, they represent a minority of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.

In contrast, Trump consolidates his support among registered Republicans (67 per cent), conservatives (71 per cent), and those without a college degree (55 per cent). The majority of Trump's supporters (88 per cent) express unwavering commitment compared to 74 per cent among Haley supporters. This solidifies Trump's position with 45 per centof the electorate as firmly decided supporters, compared to 30 per centfor Haley.

With days left before the primary, approximately 20 per centof likely Republican voters remain undecided. Among this group, a majority currently supports Haley (51 per cent), indicating the potential for last-minute shifts. However, overall expectations favor Trump, with 70 per centbelieving he will emerge victorious.

Trump continues to hold a more favourable view among the primary electorate (56 per cent) compared to Haley (36 per cent) and DeSantis (28 per cent). Trump's consistent net positive favourability rating throughout the past year distinguishes him from his competitors.

New Hampshire's Republican primary electorate views Trump's first term favorably, with 70 per centbelieving he did more to help than hurt the country. The survey also gauges expectations regarding six campaign promises, revealing varying levels of confidence in Trump's ability to achieve them.

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In the Democratic primary, likely voters lean towards a write-in for Joe Biden (63 per cent), who did not file for the primary ballot due to DNC rules. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips secures 10 per centsupport, while author Marianne Williamson follows closely with 9 per cent.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, 70 per centexpress satisfaction or enthusiasm with Biden as the nominee, but enthusiasm lags behind Trump's GOP support (31 per centvs. 46 per cent). Concerns about Biden's electability emerge, with 46 per centbelieving he provides the best chance for Democrats to win in 2024.

(With inputs from agencies)