Psychological warfare: Iran, US and Israel show off war damage, trade nuclear warnings amid possible renewal of strikes

From satellite images claiming to show damage across Gulf states since late February to US military plans leaked to the media, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly seeking a nuclear strike on Iran, the war drums are beating loud. With propaganda and psychological warfare, each side is testing the waters through intensified threats, visual claims of damage and warnings of escalation. The contest for minds is unfolding amid stalled diplomacy and the possibility of renewed fighting after the US midterm elections on November 3. Here is a roundup.

Iranian warnings of a wider and longer conflict

Iranian officials and state-linked media have intensified their messaging in recent days. Satellite images claim the extent of regional destruction caused during the first phase of the US-Israeli-Iranian war is far more than previously known. On the other hand, there are claims of extensive damage to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, including Natanz, naval facilities at Bandar Abbas, ports and missile infrastructure.

US bases and US-linked sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan have suffered substantial damage. A Wall Street Journal report identified 274 damaged structures at 24 Middle Eastern installations with a US military presence during the first six months of the war that began on February 28 with US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The financial losses are estimated to run into billions of US dollars. US officials cited by the WSJ put the damage to military bases at between $5 bn and $15 bn, while reconstruction costs could exceed $4 billion.

'Beyond West Asia': Iranian warnings of escalation as Supreme Leader updates target list

In the past few days, Iran has sharpened its rhetoric. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly directed the country's top military commanders to update its target list, and prepare for an immediate response "without geographical restrictions" to any renewed US-Israeli attack.

In a statement on October 31, he asked that "all types of tangible and intangible assets" belonging to the US and Israel be targeted. He said the armed forces would determine the timing and conditions for ending any renewed conflict.

Iranian Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia and other officials warned that a new round of conflict could last longer than the previous phase, and that the US would not be able to decide unilaterally when it ends.

Iran warned that the "flames of war" could engulf a much wider geographical area. Akraminia warned that any renewed aggression could extend the battlefield beyond West Asia. He said Iran had strengthened its operational readiness, updated its target database and expanded its defensive and offensive capabilities, he said.

Iran's military posture is increasingly emphasising the ability to retaliate beyond its borders rather than simply defend its territory.

The targets thretened include neighbouring Gulf nations hosting US forces, energy infrastructure, shipping and other strategic targets across the Middle East.

Picaxe Mountain: At the core of rising war rhetoric

During the midterm election campaign, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened further action against Iran. He often hinted that the remaining targets could be hit quickly. He said recently that the US can take out Picaxe Mountain, a heavily fortified underground complex near Natanz that is linked to Iran's nuclear programme, within 10 minutes. Iran is making defensive preparations around its nuclear sites. Satellite imagery analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security showed that the entrances to the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz remained blocked by earth as of October 7. The site is believed to be intended to house sensitive nuclear-related equipment.

US reports of war preparations and Trump's warnings

A key aspect of the psychological warfare is media leaks. In recent days, some American media outlets like Axios have been covering US military preparations, detailing the options being considered for President Trump.

The New York Times reported that the US and Israeli militaries had developed plans for renewed strikes after the US midterm elections. ABC News separately reported that Israeli sources said the plans could include strikes on Pickaxe Mountain.

The reports said possible targets could include Iran's nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone arsenal.

Netanyahu's nuclear-fear imagery and regime-change push

Adding to the escalation is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's amplification of the Iranian nuclear threat. Reports suggested that Netanyahu is pressing Trump for renewed military action against Iran that could include a nuclear strike.

Just two days before Israel's October 27 election- in which his Likud emerged as the largest party but without majority - Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv. It was to warn that electing a leader incapable of confronting Iran could expose Israelis to the danger of a "second Holocaust". Following that post, Netanyahu was accused of using fear to influence voters. It was an attempt to place the Iranian nuclear threat at the centre of the election campaign.

As he has done for decades, Netanyahu has portrayed Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions as an existential danger to Israel, whcih requires completing the military campaign against the Iranian regime alongside the US.

He has repeatedly called for regime change in Iran, portraying it as the only lasting solution to the threat posed by Tehran. On the eve of the Israeli election, Netanyahu said he had instructed the Mossad and the military to bring down Iran's government.

Netanyahu has often claimed that US-Israeli military operations prevented what he has described as potential "nuclear annihilation" of Israel.

The psychological warfare has started in earnest, with threats, satellite imagery, military signalling and nuclear-fear messaging shaping the narrative on all sides. Whether diplomacy can prevent another escalation, or the region witnesses a renewed military confrontation, may become clearer on the other side of the US midterm elections.