New Delhi: On Monday (Jan 20), Donald Trump takes over as the US president for the second time, something that can change geopolitics radically. Trump was earlier the US president in 2017-2020, during which he took several decisions that changed international relations. These include withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and Iran nuclear deal, meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the Abraham Accords in West Asia. Let us understand how India-US ties fared during Trump's first term.
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2016:

During the US elections, Trump famously said, "I am a big fan of Hindus, big fan of India, big big fan". The speech of course went viral several times since then. His Republican Party has been trying to woo Indian-American voters, and during 2024 US elections, most Indian-Americans, one of the richest communities in the US, voted for him. 
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The formation of the Republican Hindu and Indian American Coalition by the Republican National Committee (RNC) reflects an attempt to court Indian-American Hindu voters. India-born Shalabh Kumar was a prominent backer of Trump. Post Trump's 2016 election victory, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to have a conversation with him, and congratulated him on 9th November 2016.
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2017:

2017 was the year when both PM Modi and Donald Trump engaged several times. Modi paid an official visit to the US on 26-27 July that year, which saw significant outcomes. Their joint statement called out Pakistan for its support of terrorism. The US extended support for India's membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group or NSG , Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and permenant seat at the UN Security Council. During the visit, Trump called for "fair, reciprocal" trade and asked India to remove trade barriers. Both leaders again met in August on the sidelines of the G20 Hamburg summit, and then again in Manila, on the sidelines of Asean summit meetings in November. In 2017, India got first shipments of US crude oil as well, something that Trump welcomed. A US readout of PM Modi and President Trump at the Manila meeting said, "Trump expressed appreciation that Indian purchases of oil from the US have surpassed 10 million barrels in recent months". Importantly, Quad was revived after a gap of 10 years when Indian, American, Australian and Japanese leaders met on the sidelines of Asean summit in Manila.

2018:

The year started with Trump slamming Pakistan. In a tweet on 1st January 2018, Trump said, "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!".  Both India and the US firmed up ties with the signing of the COMCASA pact at the 2+2 foreign and defence ministers meeting in Delhi. COMCASA or  Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement allows for the transfer of secure communication equipment from the US to India, facilitating real-time operational information exchange. India also got Strategic Trade Authorisation-1 or STA-1 status, which allows for easier export controls for high-technology product sales, particularly in defense and dual-use technologies. PM Modi, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and US President Trump met as part of "JAI" Group on the sidelines of the G20 Argentina summit. That year, India and Russia signed a $5.43 billionn S-400 missile defence system deal, and while the threat of US CAATSA law was present, it was never applied on Delhi, which shows ties remained in positive trajectory. CAATSA stands for the US law, Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. 

2019:

This was the year of more positive developments, but new irritants come up in the relationship. PM Modi visited the US in September and met with Trump on the sidelines of UN General Assembly. But the showstopper was the "Howdy Modi" mega diaspora event. The event saw a significant gathering of Indian-Americans, but for the first time, the sitting US president addressed the diaspora alongside PM Modi. It was seen as a celebration of ties, and the diaspora which was described as the "living bridge". Many people at the event chanted "Abki Baar Trump Sarkar", which translates to 'this time, Trump government', a play on the Hindi slogan given by PM Modi for his election campaigns. Both leaders had earlier met on the sidelines of the G7 Biarritz summit in August, and then on the sidelines of G20 Osaka summit in June, both bilaterally and under the JAI grouping format. 
But irritants came in the form of Trump's 'Kashmir mediation' proposal and the US terminating India's GSP status in June 2019 due to market access issues, a withdrawal that meant higher tariffs for Indian goods in the US and Washington's Iran Sanctions regime. GSP or Generalized System of Preferences is a trade agreement that allows developing countries to export certain products to developed countries with low or zero customs duties. 

 

The year 2019 saw the Pulwama attack by Pakistani terrorists, and India removing special status for the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. Trump publicly offered to mediate between India and Pakistan. Sitting alongside Imran Khan, the then Pakistani prime minister, Trump said, "I would love to be a mediator".
Delhi was quick to reject any proposal, because for India, the Shimla pact is the last word for any India-Pakistan issue. On the sidelines of G7 summit in France, it was made clear that Trump's mediation is not required, to which he pointed, "they (India and Pakistan) can do it themselves"
On Iran, a special waiver given to India lapsed in May 2019, and Delhi had to cut its oil imports from the country. A year earlier, Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, had publicly given warnings on India importing oil from Iran. India, of couse got a waiver on Chabahar port development. The year saw the conclusion of Industrial Security Annex to India-US General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), finalisation of Defense Technology & Trade Initiative SOP, US' appointment of liaison officer to Indian Ocean Fusion Center, and the US agreeing to join CDRI or the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

2020:

This year, Trump visited India and got a grand welcome with the  "Namaste Trump". The event in Ahmedabad, on the lines of "Howdy Modi", saw crowds gathering to welcome the US president. Trump made a rousing speech on India-US ties, but also made a few mispronunciations that started a meme fest on social media.
India and US elevated ties to "comprehensive global strategic partnership", and Delhi decided to procure MH-60R naval and AH-64E Apache helicopters. Both sides called out Pakistan for its support of terrorism. The US president and the First Lady Melania Trump also visited the Taj Mahal in Agra. 
In October that year, India and the US signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the last of the four foundational agreements on defence cooperation.
BECA helps in sharing advanced satellite and sensor data and its signing coincided with India-China border tensions.
2020 was also the year when the Covid pandemic started, and the US reached out to India, the "pharmacy of the world". The US needed Hydroxychloroquine and Trump called PM Modi. India decided to supply HCQ to the US in April 2020, following the talks, despite India's ban on its exports.
Trump also proposed to mediate between India and China in the aftermath of the Galwan incident as border tensions increased. Both Delhi and Beijing rejected his proposal. On Afghanistan, the US continued to engage India, as its special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, appointed by Trump, visited Delhi several times. India was invited to attend the US-Taliban peace agreement that was officially signed on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar and eventually paved the way for US withdrawal from Afghanistan under the Biden administration, though chaotic.

Looking forward

Trump 2.0 is expected to bring a lot of changes in the world. His team has Marco Rubio, proposed as the US Secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, named as National Security Advisor, both of whom have worked on India and with India. 
Mike Waltz, a Republican representative from Florida, co-chaired the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans. In an interview to WION in 2023 when he was in India to attend India's Independence day celebration, he said, "I think the trajectory is only getting higher and only going stronger and it's across so many spheres. It's in pharmaceuticals, biotech, space, maritime shipping, energy, renewable energy and liquid natural gas and of course, military and defense. So there's so many industries that the relationships coming together".
Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar met him in December 2024, one of the first set of engagements between the Indian government and the incoming Trump administration. 
Marco Rubio, a US Senator from Florida and a China hawk, has been a strong India supporter. In July 2024, he introduced the "US-India Defense Cooperation Act" in the US Congress, aiming to elevate India's status to that of key US allies like Japan, Israel, South Korea, and NATO members in terms of technology transfers and military cooperation. After the 2020 Galwan aggression by China, Rubio had publicly expressed his "solidarity with the people of India as they firmly confront unwarranted and lawless armed aggression by the communist party of China". 
Immigration and trade can be an issue under Trump 2.0. During the recent "MAGA Civil war" over the issue of H1B visa progamme, Trump supported having more skilled workers in the US, but trade can be a thorny point. During the election campaign, Trump termed India as "Tariff King".

The incoming US president is expected to travel to India later this year for the Quad summit. This will be also for the first time that a sitting US president will travel to India in the first year of his presidency, unlike in the past when US presidents travelled to India late into their terms.