'Final Blow': Pentagon has four-point plan for Iran if talks fail, including attacks on strategic islands linked to Strait of Hormuz, claims report

The Axios website reported on Thursday (Mar 26) that the Pentagon is preparing a massive “final blow” plan of action in the Iran war. The report claimed that the four main options include taking control of strategic islands, apart from ground forces and a massive bombing campaign. Dramatic military escalation is likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks by the end of this week, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The four "final blow" options

Most of the four main options relate to control of the Strait of Hormuz. Among them is the possible invasion or blockading of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, said the report citing two US officials and two sources with knowledge of the internal discussions.

The second option is invading Larak Island, a strategic outpost that helps Iran control the Strait of Hormuz. Larak also hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft capable of targeting cargo ships, and radars monitoring movements in the strait, the report said.

The third option is seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands near the western entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. These are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE.

The fourth option is blocking or seizing ships exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ground operations plans underway as Marines, airborne division arrive

As reported in multiple outlets, the US is planning possible ground attacks deep inside Iran to secure highly enriched uranium stored in nuclear facilities. As a ground offensive could prove too risky, an alternative could be large-scale air strikes on those facilities to prevent Iran from accessing the material.

There are reinforcements either arriving or deploying soon. This includes fighter jet squadrons, thousands of ground troops, and one Marine expeditionary unit expected to join CENTCOM this week, while another is deploying. The command element of the 82nd Airborne Division, along with an infantry brigade of around 2,000 troops, is also reportedly heading to the theatre.

Dramatic escalation seems likely as talks stall

Diplomatic talks have stalled, with Iran reportedly rejecting the 15-point American peace plan sent via intermediary countries. More critically, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. In this context, as the five-day pause announced by Donald Trump comes to an end on Friday, a crushing show of force could provide leverage in peace negotiations or allow the US president to declare victory.

Trump has not yet decided on specifics, but ‘is not bluffing, ready to unleash hell’

According to the report, White House officials see ground operations as “hypothetical”. Trump has not yet decided on a specific course of action but is ready to escalate if talks fail. He could still follow through on the threats made just before announcing the pause: to bomb Iranian power plants and energy facilities.

Speaking on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “doesn’t bluff and he is ready to unleash hell. Iran shouldn’t miscalculate again... any violence beyond this point will be because the Iranian regime refuses to come to a deal.”

Iran remains sceptical of talks, as speaker warns a ‘’regional country'

Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X that Iranian intelligence indicated US military preparations “with support from a regional country”.

“All enemy movements are under the surveillance of our armed forces. If they take any action, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without limitation by relentless attacks,” he warned.

While Ghalibaf did not name the regional country, there is speculation that he was referring to the United Arab Emirates.

Mediation efforts for crunch talks continue

Iran has not ruled out negotiations, but mistrust is the problem, the Axios report said, citing a source. “The commanders of the IRGC are very sceptical. But the mediators haven’t given up,” the source was quoted as saying. Reports indicated that countries like Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are acting as intermediaries to help organise the crunch talks.
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