Are CONSPIRACY THEORIES your thing? You are overconfident and arrogant, study says

Are you someone who loves conspiracy theories and even believes that they could be real? Scientists say that those who believe in conspiracy theories are arrogant. It is almost impossible to change their belief system. According to a study by Cornell University, people who believe in conspiracy theories are likely to be hugely overconfident. One such theory that was doing the rounds on social media this week was about the Rapture. It is a belief that Jesus will come to Earth on this day and take the believers with him to heaven, leaving the rest to suffer in agony on Earth. A South African pastor has said that it is going to happen on September 23, 2025. Some people were so sure of it happening that they even sold their belongings in preparation for their trip to heaven. But the date passed by without anything happening.

"One of the things that seems to distinguish – at least some – conspiracy theorists is not just that their beliefs seem to be based on poor evidence, but also that they appear so confident in their beliefs," study author Gordon Pennycook told PsyPost. Conspiracy theories sound interesting, they challenge common beliefs and give people something to think about, a scenario that says - What if? Or, could this really be? But conspiracy theories are almost always rejected, and there is never any evidence to prove that they are true. There is the theory that the Titanic never sank, and some other ship was passed off as the Titanic to claim insurance. The Rapture is another wild claim that some people want to believe. Also Read: Forget the Rapture, another prophecy claims comet will end the world in 2026

In order to understand what was going on, and why people believe in conspiracy theories, scientists from Cornell University carried out research. In eight separate studies, they asked 4,181 participants in the US to complete various cognitive tasks. To gauge whether they were overconfident, they also asked them how well they thought they had done. The overconfidence scores were then compared to how strongly each one of them endorsed conspiracy theories. This included the conspiracy theory that the moon landing was faked, and that vaccines are part of a government control plot. Also Read: 'Catching a flight to heaven': Apocalypse claims on Sep 23 prompt people to sell everything. What is the truth?

Study on conspiracy theories

The results showed a strong link between overconfidence and belief in extreme conspiracy theories. The analysis was published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, also revealed some strange aspects. Only 12 per cent of participants believed in conspiracy theories; however, everyone who did endorse these theories thought that nine in 10 people were on the same page as them. This "false consensus" was highest in the most overconfident participants who believed in conspiracy theories, and also that almost everyone else also did.

Dr Pennycook said, "The tendency to be overconfident in general may increase the chances that someone falls down the rabbit hole, so to speak, and believes conspiracies."