Trump, dreaming of Nobel Peace Prize, may have copied Modi to end Iran-Israel war quickly, but did he speak too soon?

US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, 12 days into the escalation of the conflict that started on June 13 with Israeli attacks and follow-up US strikes with B2 bombers targeting Iranian nuclear sites. He warned both countries not to violate the truce, but within hours of his social media posts, Iran rained more missiles on Israel, which vowed to respond. Trump appears to have copied Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who ended the Operation Sindoor, India's military response to Pakistan for the Pahalgam terror attack, just three days after it started on May 10. At the time of writing this, the Israel-Iran ceasefire appears to be broken. Did Trump speak too soon? Is the war really over? Why did Trump announce the truce if ground reality hasn't changed? Let's break it down.

How Modi and Trump differed in announcing the ceasefires

Perhaps the most important difference between the end of Operation Sindoor and the truce announcement of Trump is that, India declared that its military objective had been achieved. That objective was to hit hard inside Pakistan's terror infrastructure. The new military doctrine announced by Modi after the end of Operation Sindoor also mentioned that there will be a strong response to any Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in India in the future. He made it clear that India will not yield to any nuclear blackmail, with the Indian airstrikes having hit very near the suspected nuclear installations of Pakistan. Modi reasserted his earlier statement in the context of Ukraine-Russia war that this is not an era of war. But he also stressed that this is not an era of terrorism, either.

But in the case of Trump, there are some key differences. The US is, at best, a ‘third party’ in the war, having joined it in the form of a one-off military strike, the Operation Midnight Hammer, in which B2 bombers attacked some Iranian nuclear sites. However, questions remain on whether the military objectives of the war, either of the US or Israel, have been achieved, given that Iran appears to have moved the near-bomb grade uranium it had enriched up to 60 per cent. That remains a potential threat, as Iran can resume its nuclear programme, this time with an explicit intention of building a bomb.

Trump may have spoken too soon, but why?

One of the reasons why Trump was very quick to announce the ceasefire is domestic politics. Democrats, who were in tatters after the last presidential elections that saw Trump thunder back into power, have now got a rallying point in the form of US intervention in the Iran-Israel war. That is not good for Trump or his Republican Party, some leaders of which are also criticising the US president. Trump's popularity will be put to test in the mid-term elections next November. As a president who got elected for the second non-consecutive term on a promise of ‘no more stupid wars’, the Israel-Iran situation provided Trump with a tough choice. America had to enter the war in order to end it quickly. A long war of attrition was not on the agenda of Trump. But events unfolding on the ground threaten to drag the US into another long-drawn conflict.

Nobel Peace Prize hopes of Trump: A key motivator to end the war?

It is interesting to note that Trump claimed credit, publicly and quite a few times, for the India-Pakistan ceasefire after Operation Sindoor, something India firmly rejected. He has been trying to end the Israel-Hamas war before it escalated into an Iran-Israel war. His efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia war haven't been fruitful yet. But Pakistan, quite stupidly, endorsed a nomination for Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Somewhere in his heart, Trump himself probably dreams of such an honour. In reality, despite his acerbic tongue, Trump has made some efforts to end wars. But the belligerents on both sides are frustrating his efforts, particularly in the Ukraine-Russia war.

With no more terms left (unless he manages to change the constitution), Trump is looking for a legacy. He probably wants to be known as the peacemaker president. In his first term, he made efforts to bring Israel and its traditional Arab rivals closer through the Abraham Accords. This term, he is trying hard to end American military involvement in foreign wars. But the traditional role of his nation as the global police, and the temptations from the military-industrial complex, are pulling strings elsewhere.

While Trump might have tried a touch-and-go type operation against Iran, peace seems to be distant, and at best uneasy. The US might have to bear the consequences of having sided with Israel in the war, the latest example being the attack by Iran on the American airbase in Qatar. In the coming days, Trump would learn if another war in which he got involved, and hoped to resolve, would worsen after his interventions.