Bangladesh’s fault lines: The cost of deepening defence reliance on China

Bangladesh’s escalating military reliance on China presents critical fault lines that jeopardise its national sovereignty, economic resilience, and regional relationships. Beijing has strategically cultivated defence ties with Dhaka, positioning Bangladesh as a cornerstone of its ambition to exert influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). While this alignment appears beneficial for Bangladesh’s immediate defence modernisation ambitions, recent developments highlight significant geopolitical risks.

Historically, Bangladesh-China relations have witnessed profound transformations. Despite China’s initial opposition to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, bilateral ties improved significantly post-1975. The 2002 Defence Cooperation Agreement intensified military exchanges, arms transfers, and strategic consultations. Consequently, Bangladesh has progressively increased its reliance on Chinese military technology to unprecedented levels.

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Currently, China supplies around 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s military equipment. Notable acquisitions include naval vessels such as frigates, corvettes, maritime patrol ships, and sophisticated missile systems, notably the C-802A anti-ship missiles. The procurement of two Ming-class submarines in 2016 marked a critical escalation, substantially improving Bangladesh’s naval capabilities but simultaneously binding Dhaka further into Beijing’s strategic orbit.

A particularly significant recent development is Bangladesh’s ongoing negotiation with China to procure 16 advanced J-10C multirole fighter jets, designed to replace its ageing MiG-29 and F-7 aircraft. This procurement signifies not only a significant step toward modernising Bangladesh’s air force but also represents a deeper strategic pivot towards Beijing amidst increasingly strained relations with India and cautious relations with the United States.

Moreover, China’s role in enabling Bangladesh’s domestic defence production capabilities further entrenches Dhaka’s dependency. Recent Chinese technology transfers to Bangladesh involve local manufacturing capacities for rifles, rocket launchers, and light utility vehicles. While these transfers align with Bangladesh’s “Force Goal 2030” campaign for military modernisation, they simultaneously deepen the structural dependence on Chinese technology and assistance, eroding Bangladesh’s autonomy in defence production.

Bangladesh’s interim Chief Adviser, Dr Muhammad Yunus, visited Beijing in March 2025, significantly boosting bilateral ties. Yunus signed eight Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and one agreement encompassing infrastructure, economic cooperation, and expanded defence collaboration. Crucially, Yunus secured $2.1 billion in new Chinese investments, loans, and grants, along with discussions focused on expanding military cooperation. Such diplomatic outreach underscores Bangladesh’s deepening political tilt toward China, intensifying concerns among regional and global stakeholders.

Strategic infrastructure projects financed and executed by China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are additional pressure points. These include the modernisation of Mongla Port and the sensitive Teesta River management project. While these initiatives promise economic advancement, they risk locking Bangladesh into a debt-driven dependency, potentially replicating debt-trap scenarios already seen elsewhere along the BRI corridors.

The BNS Sheikh Hasina Submarine Base at Pekua, Cox’s Bazar, financed by approximately $1.21 billion in Chinese loans, represents another critical strategic entanglement. While it significantly boosts Bangladesh’s maritime defence capabilities, the facility potentially enables Chinese deployment of advanced surveillance and anti-submarine warfare systems. The base embodies a profound strategic vulnerability, potentially rendering Bangladesh a proxy within China’s broader Indo-Pacific ambitions.

These developments understandably alarm India, South Asia’s predominant maritime power. China’s intensified engagement, especially involving sensitive projects like the Teesta River initiative and dual-use military facilities, aggravates Indian apprehensions about strategic encirclement. Washington, similarly concerned, continues to caution Dhaka against unchecked alignment with Beijing under its broader Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed explicitly at counterbalancing Chinese dominance.

Economically, Bangladesh’s persistent trade deficit with China remains substantial despite attempts at negotiating favourable terms. Although Beijing pledged duty-free access for 99 percent of Bangladeshi goods until 2028, continued heavy reliance on high-interest Chinese loans exacerbates fears of unsustainable debt accumulation and long-term economic vulnerabilities.

Given these unfolding complexities, Bangladesh stands at a pivotal geopolitical crossroads. While deepening ties with Beijing offers immediate defence enhancements and economic support, these short-term benefits come with potentially irreversible strategic vulnerabilities. Bangladesh risks compromising its ability to independently navigate regional and global strategic currents, limiting autonomy in its foreign policy choices and jeopardising balanced relationships with key international actors, notably India, the US, and Japan.

Bangladesh must urgently reconsider its strategic orientation for regional stability. Diversifying military procurement and infrastructure development through partnerships with various global actors could mitigate the risks inherent in overreliance on China. Enhanced diplomatic outreach and economic cooperation with regional neighbours and established democracies can serve as effective counterbalances against potential exploitation.

India, for its part, must recalibrate its strategy by expanding diplomatic engagement, enhancing economic partnerships, and reinforcing military readiness. Regional allies, like Japan, should also proactively support Bangladesh in building resilient, diversified, and balanced strategic relationships.

Ultimately, Bangladesh’s geopolitical future depends critically on its ability to navigate these fault lines prudently. Pursuing strategic autonomy and balanced diplomacy will help secure long-term national sovereignty, economic resilience, and regional stability. Failure to address these pressing issues risks irreversible consequences—an outcome neither Bangladesh nor its regional neighbours can afford.