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Opinion | Moscow talks are a chance for India to influence Afghan situation

New DelhiWritten By: Achal MalhotraUpdated: Oct 20, 2021, 08:16 PM IST
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Russian presidential envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov (L) talks to a member of the Taliban delegation Mawlawi Shahabuddin Dilawar prior to an international conference on Afghanistan in Moscow on October 20, 2021 Photograph:(AFP)

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The invitation to Moscow talks reflects the acknowledgement on the part of other regional players that India can play an important role in the stabilisation of the situation in Afghanistan, and it cannot be excluded from any collective processes which aim at handling the situation arising out of the Taliban’s take-over

India is participating in the Moscow Format meeting on Afghanistan on 20th October, 2021. The meeting will be attended by the representatives of 10 countries, including Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries in Central Asia and a high-level delegation from Taliban. 

This is the first meeting of the Moscow Format being held since the Taliban captured power by force on 15th August this year, and also the first collective interaction between the Taliban and regional players since then. The meeting therefore should provide an important opportunity to convey the expectations of the international community from Taliban and listen to the Taliban’s perspective and if possible lay a road map for the stabilisation of Afghanistan. 

The invitation to India and India’s acceptance are significant in more than one sense. For the first time India would be face-to-face with Taliban delegation within the Moscow format, and it is second  officially  acknowledged interaction with Taliban since the formation of an interim government in Kabul.

The first interaction took place when Taliban’s representative Stanekzai met India’s Ambassador to Qatar, at the Indian Embassy in Doha on August 31. The meeting was projected as one with limited objective of the safe evacuation of the Indian nationals from Afghanistan and to convey India’s concerns over the presence of anti-India terror outfits in Afghanistan.

It is noteworthy that India has been invited to participate in a dialogue with Taliban, despite the known fact that India has questioned the legitimacy of the interim government in Kabul, and expressed its serious apprehensions over the possible misuse of the Afghan soil for acts of terrorism in the region and beyond. 

The invitation therefore reflects the acknowledgement on the part of other regional players that India can play an important role in the stabilisation of the situation in Afghanistan, and it cannot be excluded from any collective processes which aim at handling the situation arising out of the Taliban’s take-over.

From India’s perspective, the participation in Moscow Format is justified for more than one reason. 

Firstly, the agenda of the Moscow Format meeting as revealed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, is in tune with India’s own priorities and also in line with the demands placed on Taliban through the UNSC Resolution 2593 of 30th August. 

For instance, Lavrov was reported to have said,"We encourage them (Taliban)  to live up to the promises they made when they came to power, including ensuring that the government is inclusive not only along the ethnic lines, but also along the political lines, so that the full range of political beliefs of the society is reflected in the government's composition”.  

He further said that the meeting would focus on the developments related to the political and security situation in Afghanistan, and on the consolidation of the efforts by the international community to prevent humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Significantly, Lavrov is also reported to have said that the recognition of the Taliban-led government in Kabul was not on the agenda.

Further, and perhaps more importantly, India remained by and large excluded from the processes which were meant to shape the future road-map of Afghanistan, even though India made a valuable contribution towards the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan by investing over $3bn in nearly 500 big and small infrastructure projects during the tenure of the elected governments in Afghanistan.   

Despite being a strategic partner of the USA, India was not kept informed on certain aspects of the deal which the Trump Administration struck with the Taliban on 29th February, 2020. Being a part of the Moscow Format therefore offers an opportunity to stay in the game and remain relevant in a strategic space where India’s adversaries namely Pakistan and China appear to have an edge at this point of time.

It is abundantly clear that India has no intention to sit on the fence and watch in silence, which can only deprive it of the chance to influence the future course of developments in Afghanistan. It must be underlined in this context that India has reportedly invited the National Security Advisors of the countries in the region including China, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan etc. for a meeting on Afghanistan in November this year.

In short India appears to have taken a right decision to participate in the Moscow Format meeting; it would be erroneous to interpret it as softening of India’s attitude towards Taliban or dilution of its principled stand or as a prelude to its recognition of the Taliban-led government in Kabul. It may, however, not be easy for India to push its point of view in the presence of Pakistan and China. The absence of the USA (which has decided to pull out of the meeting for the time being) would also mean the absence of support from a like-minded partner, though it would not be easy for the adversaries also to sideline India, considering that India can persist on its own and also count on the support from Russia and Iran and some Central Asian countries.

It would be interesting to watch the outcome of the Moscow Format meeting even if it is unlikely to resolve all the issues at hand. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)