India floods: How are states faring? From Kerala's AI-assisted alert systems to tackling Assam's mighty Brahmaputra, it's complicated

Dozens of people have died across India, from Kerala in the south to Assam in the north-east, due to monsoon floods. The heavy seasonal rains, resulting floods, and inundation of large areas are nothing new. But nearly 80 years into Independence, why are India's states still unable to address the flood situation effectively? Here is what states like Kerala and Assam are doing, and why the situation is more complicated than you might think.

Kerala's AI-assisted flood alert systems build on years of experience

Kerala, the first state where the Monsoon reaches India, has developed layered, technology-enabled flood management systems, especially after the devastating floods of 2018. This year, the state government announced broader Artificial Intelligence-backed disaster management initiatives.

These include real-time monitoring through Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, river gauges, as well as automated and manual rain gauges. Sensors to track soil moisture, along with continuous data on water levels and river flow, are also part of the system.

AI and machine learning models analyse rainfall, water levels, historical data, and weather inputs for predictive forecasting from hours to days in advance. This helps reduce false alarms and enables more accurate, impact-based warnings.

Data collection is the key in addressing floods

The early warning systems in Kerala integrate data from the India Meteorological Department, satellite imagery, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, and community-collected hyper-local rainfall and weather data. The CoSiT-FloWS project in the Periyar and Chalakudy river basins is an example of community-based rain gauge monitoring.

Alerts are disseminated through a mobile apps, SMS, social media, sirens, and strobe lights. The KaWaCHaM (Kerala Warnings, Crisis and Hazard Management) system uses colour-coded alerts and voice messages to reach residents quickly.

The Idukki Disaster Resilience and Information System (IDRIS), a piot project, seeks to combine AI, sensors, and satellite data to provide flood and landslide alerts. There are also plans for AI-driven dam management and denser rain gauge networks.

Community-first approach to flood management in Kerala

The most effective disaster alert systems are those that actively involve local communities. In Kerala, warnings are communicated in multiple languages, including tribal languages, to ensure wider reach. Community-based monitoring of rainfall, soil conditions, and river water levels is linked to emergency operations centres for a coordinated response.

These systems have been credited with helping protect large numbers of people during recent floods, landslides, and other rain-related disasters.

Assam and eastern India's flood management is complicated due to the fury of mighty Brahmaputra river

Assam, the rest of the North-East, and parts of eastern India face severe flooding every year as rivers swell during the monsoon. Assam's situation is worsened by the overflowing of the mighty Brahmaputra and its numerous tributaries. The region's challenges are structural and longstanding, rather than simply the result of a lack of effort.

The Brahmaputra is a massive, sediment-laden, and constantly shifting river originating in Tibet, with major tributaries flowing from Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Meghalaya. Intense monsoon rainfall in the upstream hills causes rapid runoff and sudden rises in river water levels.

Heavy sediment loads gradually raise riverbeds, reducing the river's carrying capacity and increasing the risk of floods.

Deforestation and land-use changes in the hills reduce water absorption

Deforestation in upstream areas increases soil erosion and landslides, sending even more water and silt downstream. Much of the Brahmaputra's embankment network, stretching for around 5,000 kilometres, is ageing and has exceeded its intended design life. Hundreds of breaches occur regularly during the monsoon.

A false sense of security created by these embankments has encouraged human settlements in floodplains. Living close to the river becomes a trap for many people during the floods.

These human settlements, combined with poor drainage planning, have led to the loss of natural flood buffers such as wetlands, floodplains, and spill channels. The Brahmaputra Board has limited implementation powers, restricting its ability to carry out large-scale flood management measures.

Forecasting and early warning systems are required

Early warning systems need to be strengthened, while available funds should be utilised more effectively for long-term, systemic change rather than only emergency responses. Human encroachments, inadequate desilting, and an increase in extreme weather events driven by climate change, along with phenomena such as El Nino, add to the challenges.

Modern forecasting, warning, and monitoring systems need to be integrated with indigenous knowledge and community-based practices, alongside nature-based solutions such as wetland restoration, floodplain conservation, and watershed management.