India and Pakistan will face off on Sunday (Feb 23) in Dubai in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. While Pakistan will enter this contest after losing the curtain raiser to New Zealand (by 60 runs), their competitor India emerged winners against Bangladesh, holding an upper hand in the semis race. However, what would happen to the tournament host should they lose the marquee clash? Would they be knocked out or still have a little window to cruise to the final four? Let's explore.

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Group standing

Placed in Group A, Pakistan currently sit at the bottom with zero points, as Bangladesh, but because of their lower NNR (-1.200) compared to the Tigers (-0.408), the hosts are in the fourth position in the standings. However, with two points each (from their respective first games), New Zealand and India hold the top two spots, with the Kiwis number one with better NRR (+1.200), while India is in the second position (+0.408).

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After going down against New Zealand, Pakistan has two remaining matches in this tournament, against India on February 23 and Bangladesh on February 27.  

Semis chances 

An ICC tournament returned to Pakistan for the first time since 1996, when they co-hosted the 50-over World Cup. Although the build-up in the country was massive this time, with several former Pakistan cricketers, alongside the PCB administration, going gaga over it, their tournament could virtually end just four days into it should they lose to India on Sunday.

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A loss to India could end their semis chances, although, mathematically, they could still qualify; the question remains how.

Also read | Champions Trophy 2025 - ‘Shubman Gill deserves to be number 1 ODI batter,’ says Ricky Ponting

India beating Pakistan could almost seal their semis place, with four points from two matches; however, Pakistan would then rely on Bangladesh to pull the rabbit out of the hat against the Kiwis the next day, besides assuming the hosts would beat Bangladesh in their final league game in Rawalpindi.

The calculations don’t end here.

For Pakistan to ensure a semis berth, India must also beat New Zealand comprehensively to stay on the top of the points table, with the remaining three teams sharing two points each. That would boil down to the NRR as the team with a better one advances.

However, should Pakistan beat India, it would make things interesting in Group A, with all three of New Zealand and the two arch-rivals sharing two points each. 

Should the host better their already-dominating head-to-head record against India (3-2) in this tournament, different scenarios will come into the picture.

(With inputs from agencies)