‘Rubbing hands with glee’: Trump's Russia reset raises espionage risk as US considers allowing diplomats back in

The Trump administration is in discussions with Moscow about allowing Russian diplomats back into the United States, potentially reversing years of tit-for-tat expulsions.

However, this move, which Russia is expected to reciprocate, could provide the Kremlin with an opportunity to re-establish its intelligence operations in the US.

US and Russian officials met in Istanbul last month to explore the possibility of increasing diplomatic representation in each other’s countries.

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Days earlier, in Riyadh, a US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with top Russian officials to discuss ensuring their embassies and consulates could function properly. “To ensure that our diplomatic missions can function,” Rubio told reporters.

Both Washington and Moscow suggest that normalising diplomatic operations could lay the groundwork for broader negotiations, potentially even a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

Espionage risks and diplomatic advantages

Reopening diplomatic channels might also allow the US to strengthen its intelligence-gathering efforts in Russia. American embassies and consulates have long hosted intelligence operatives, but experts caution that any agreement to restore diplomatic staffing could give Russian spies a significant advantage.

Operating in a more open society, they would have greater freedom compared to their American counterparts in Moscow, who face constant surveillance and restrictions.

Paul Kolbe, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, told The New York Times, “If I were sitting in Yasenevo or Lubyanka and targeting Americans, I would be rubbing my hands with glee.”

Kolbe further explained that Russian diplomats in the US would likely include intelligence officers seeking to infiltrate American government institutions and businesses.

“They will have far more access and freedom of action than American diplomats in Moscow, who will contend with 24/7 physical and technical surveillance and harassment,” he said.

The Trump administration’s broader shake-up of the federal workforce could also play into the Kremlin’s hands, Kolbe noted.

Years of diplomatic expulsions between US and Russia

US-Russia relations took a sharp downturn after Moscow interfered in the 2016 presidential election. In response, successive US presidents expelled over 100 Russian diplomats accused of espionage and shut down several Russian diplomatic facilities suspected of intelligence operations.

President Barack Obama ordered 35 Russian intelligence operatives to leave and seized two diplomatic compounds in New York and Maryland. In 2018, President Trump expelled 60 more Russian diplomats and closed Russia’s consulate in Seattle after Russian agents poisoned a former spy in the UK.

President Joe Biden later removed another 10 Russian diplomats and a dozen suspected spies from Russia’s UN mission following cyberattacks and Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

In nearly every case, Russia retaliated with equivalent measures, expelling American diplomats and forcing the closure of US consulates. The Kremlin also barred the US Embassy in Moscow from employing local staff, leaving American diplomats to handle maintenance tasks such as cleaning floors and shovelling snow.

Today, both sides operate with minimal diplomatic presence, including significantly reduced intelligence staff. The potential reopening of diplomatic missions could restore these operations, but also rekindle espionage battles between the two nations.

(With inputs from agencies)