Trump claims economy is ‘booming’, but global forecast says his tariffs are dragging growth down

US President Donald Trump claimed his tariffs are driving strong economic growth. But just hours after his latest boast on Truth Social, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released a bleak forecast pointing to a global slowdown, blaming, in part, the very trade policies Trump continues to defend.

“Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!” Trump wrote early Tuesday. However, the OECD report paints a different picture.

Global and US growth both projected to decline

The OECD, based in Paris, said global economic growth is expected to drop to 2.9 per cent in 2025, down from 3.3 per cent in 2024. The US economy is predicted to slow even more sharply, from 2.8 per cent this year to just 1.6 per cent in 2025, according to Bloomberg.

Economists at the OECD cited trade disruptions, rising uncertainty, and inflationary pressure as key reasons for the weaker outlook. “Lower growth and less trade will hit incomes and slow job growth,” said Alvaro Pereira, the OECD’s chief economist.

The report also noted that a shrinking federal workforce in the US is contributing to the economic slowdown.

OECD flags Trump’s tariffs as major threat

The OECD directly linked the gloomy forecast to Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Since his April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement, which included 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods, global markets have been in turmoil.

China responded with its own 125 per cent tax on US imports, sparking a full-blown trade war. Though both sides agreed to de-escalate in mid-May, with the US lowering tariffs to 30 per cent and China dropping its own to 10 per cent, tensions have quickly returned.

Over the weekend, Trump claimed China had “TOTALLY VIOLATED” the agreement, while Beijing accused the US of repeatedly provoking “new trade frictions.”

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OECD trade ministers gather in Paris amid growing concerns

As the trade war deepens, OECD trade ministers from 38 countries are meeting in Paris this week. Officials include US trade representative Jamieson Greer, EU commissioner Maros Sefcovic, and Lin Feng from China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The agenda is clear, lower tariffs, ease global tensions, and restore confidence in trade systems shaken by months of back-and-forth action.

But as the world’s largest economies clash, the OECD warned that things could worsen if retaliatory actions continue, investor confidence falls further, or stock markets tumble again.