Taiwan election: From 'spy' balloons to psychological warfare, China is piling on pressure

With candidates in Taiwan gearing up for the key elections which are now just a day away, China has ramped up the pressure by literally looming over the self-governing island. This is in addition to the remarks from Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping who in his New Year’s address called China’s “reunification” with Taiwan inevitable.

Over the past few days, China has made several remarks going as far as warning voters in Taiwan to make the “right choice” which includes not supporting the current presidential frontrunner and candidate from the self-governing island’s ruling party, Lai Ching-te.

Chinese ‘spy’ balloons spotted over Taiwan

Since last month, the Taiwanese defence ministry has reported a spate of Chinese balloons not only flying over Taiwan but also crossing the narrow Taiwan Strait which separates the island from mainland China.

On Tuesday (Jan 9), Taiwan’s defence ministry said that it spotted four Chinese balloons over the Taiwan Strait the day prior, two of which crossed the Taiwan Strait.

This was the day after Taiwanese officials said they detected three Chinese balloons flying over the Taiwan Strait on Sunday.

Amid the rise of such incidents, Taiwan accused China of threatening aviation safety and waging psychological warfare on the island’s people ahead of its presidential and parliamentary elections on Saturday (Jan 13).

However, the Taiwanese defence ministry has not directly said that the balloons are being used for spying. Officials have also said that so far they have not recovered any remains of the balloons and were not considering shooting them down, at least for now.

The possibility that China could be using balloons for spying became a global issue last February when the United States shot down what it said was a Chinese surveillance balloon. However, Beijing has since said that the balloon was a civilian craft that accidentally drifted astray.

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China has long flexed its military muscle against Taiwan by sending fighter jets, reconnaissance drones and naval ships almost daily. In April 2023, China conducted three-day military drills on the Taiwan Strait and by the end of it, releaseda simulation video showing how it could launch a full-scale attack against the island if war ever breaks out.

Since December, the island’s defence ministry has been reporting at least 20 of mysterious balloons some of which have crossed the Taiwan Strait. These incidents prompted the Taiwanese ministry to issue a strongly worded statement on Saturday (Jan 6), condemning China’s actions.

“We also express our condemnation of the Chinese communists’ disregard for aviation safety and its disregard for the safety of passengers on cross-Taiwan Strait and international flights.”

The ministry said that its analysis of these actions was that the balloons were part of China’s “grey zone” tactics against Taiwan “in an attempt to use cognitive warfare to affect the morale of our people.”

Similarly, some experts believe that Beijing is trying to influence Taiwan’s elections by using these balloons. “They’re using various different tactics to threaten Taiwan and to put pressure on (President Tsai Ing-wen’s) administration,” Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project told VOA.

Raymond Kuo, director of the RAND Corporation’s Taiwan Policy Initiative told AFP that the balloons’ military purpose is in line with “China’s gray zone coercion strategy towards Taiwan.” He added, “Beijing is signalling that it can violate Taiwanese airspace at will and challenge its sovereignty.”

Kuo also believes that China’s balloon tactic might backfire and these incidents could push Taiwan to form closer security relations with the United States and other countries in Asia.

Taiwan’s government also issued an air raid alert on Tuesday (Jan 9), saying a Chinese rocket carrying a satellite had flown over its southern airspace. Taiwan’s foreign minister described the incident as part of a pattern of harassment before the elections.

‘War and peace’

China has not only used its balloons in a bid to potentially influence the Taiwanese elections but also disinformation and words to sway the voters. While Xi struck a stronger tone than he did last year with his New Year’s address, calling Taiwan’s “reunification” with China, he did not mention the elections.

However, Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, a quasi-official body that handles ties with Taiwan, during his New Year’s address said the Taiwanese people had an important choice to make during the upcoming election.

“The two elections coming up in the Taiwan region are important choices between the prospects for peace and war, prosperity and decline,” said the senior Chinese official.

He added, “Taiwan compatriots must stand on the right side of history, and make a correct choice to promote cross-strait relations back to the right track of peaceful development.”

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Both China and the US are closely watching the elections since the result is expected to impact the future of Taiwan’s relations with Beijing.But China has reportedly been more involved.

Some experts and Taiwanese authorities have said that the election campaign has been hit by a wave of disinformation and TikTok videos, which are particularly aimed at candidates China opposes.

While China has not explicitly supported any candidate, Beijing and Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), have warned that Lai poses a “severe danger” to cross-Strait relations.

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“I sincerely hope the majority of Taiwan compatriots recognize the extreme harm of the DPP’s (Democratic Progressive Party) ‘Taiwan independence’ line and the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te’s triggering of cross-Strait confrontation and conflict, and to make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Strait relations,” said China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in a statement.

It added, “If he comes to power, he will further push for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities (and create) turbulence in the Taiwan Strait.”

A report by AFP detailed how one Chinese hashtag criticising Lai received over 8.5 million views. The report added that replies to such posts and videos criticising the DPP were filled with derogatory remarks and conspiracy theories.

On Thursday (Jan 11), Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu criticised China’s “repeated interference” in the upcoming elections and slammed Beijing for “once again blatantly intimidating the Taiwanese people and the international community”.

It added, “Taiwan’s elections are in the international spotlight & PRC’s repeated interference steals the focus. Frankly, Beijing should stop messing with other countries’ elections & hold their own. Let the #Chinese people freely choose their leaders.”

According to experts, the flow of disinformation demonstrates a Beijing-linked effort to undermine any lawmakers who oppose Taiwan’s status as a part of China.

The incumbent Vice President Lai, recently accused China of trying to undermine the election and said that it is engaging in “unprecedented” levels of interference.

“In addition to political and military pressure, it is also using economic means, cognitive warfare, disinformation, threats and incentives,” he told reporters, on Tuesday (Jan 9). “It has resorted to all means to interfere with this election.”

Meanwhile in Taiwan…

Recent opinion polls show most Taiwanese support Lai while the rest are split between KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party. It is safe to say that Beijing is not happy, as it wants the ruling DPP, which China has labelled as separatists, to be voted out.

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In his recent speeches, Lai has asked people not to be swayed by China’s threats while offering talks with Beijing and pledging not to upset the status quo. “Taiwan stands on the front line of the confrontation between democracy and totalitarianism,” said Lai about the upcoming elections.

His supporters have also indicated that they will not be swayed. “China often tries to intimidate Taiwan, but we Taiwanese are not easily frightened,” said a woman surnamed Zheng, as quoted by AFP.

She added that “less clear-headed people might get scared and vote for unprincipled politicians”.

The DDP has long rejected Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying that Taiwan’s future should be decided by its people, while KMT argues that both Taipei and Beijing belong to one single China.

The ruling party has portrayed the KMT and its presidential candidate, Hou as being pro-Beijing. He has since rejected the allegation that he is “pro-China and a sell-out of Taiwan.”

(With inputs from agencies)