CIA says lab leak 'more likely' origin of COVID-19 as Ratcliffe takes charge

For years, the CIA maintained that it lacked sufficient evidence to determine whether COVID-19 originated from a wet market in Wuhan, China, or was an accidental lab leak. However, the agency has now adjusted its stance, suggesting that a lab-related incident is "more likely" than natural transmission through animals.

The updated assessment follows the confirmation of John Ratcliffe as CIA director during Donald Trump’s second White House administration. In a statement released on Saturday, a CIA spokesperson explained, "CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting."

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Despite the shift, it stated that both scenarios remain plausible. Officials said that the revised assessment does not stem from any new intelligence but is instead based on the same evidence previously analysed.

Lab leak hypothesis gains momentum

John Ratcliffe, the new CIA chief, has been a long-time supporter of the lab leak theory. Following his appointment, Ratcliffe said that understanding the origins of COVID-19 would be a priority.

Speaking to Breitbart News on Friday, he said, “I think our intelligence, our science and our common sense all really dictate that the origins of Covid was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” He also stated that the CIA could no longer remain “on the sidelines” of this debate.

The CIA’s “low confidence” assessment means that the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete. This conclusion aligns with the positions of other agencies. Five organisations, including the National Intelligence Council and the Defence Intelligence Agency, have leaned towards natural exposure as the cause of the outbreak, though they too maintain “low confidence” in their evaluations.

Meanwhile, two other agencies – the FBI and the Department of Energy – have supported the lab leak hypothesis. However, their conclusions differ, with the FBI tracing it back to the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Energy Department pointing to the Wuhan Center for Disease Control.

Political implications

The origins of COVID-19 carry significant geopolitical ramifications. Ratcliffe said in a 2023 essay for Fox News, co-authored with Cliff Sims, that recognising the virus as emerging from a lab under China’s Communist Party would present major diplomatic challenges for the Biden administration.

During his first presidency, Donald Trump also took a strong stance on the issue. “We must hold accountable the nation which unleashed this plague onto the world, China,” he said, criticising both the Chinese government and the World Health Organization (WHO) for their handling of the outbreak. Trump accused the WHO of being under China’s influence and spreading misinformation about the virus.

(With inputs from agencies)