&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "US Treasury rally pauses as markets brace for inflation test")
US Treasury yields have snapped a three-week rally, with traders holding their breath ahead of a crucial consumer price index (CPI) report that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move.
As per Bloomberg, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by seven basis points last week to about 4.3 per cent, bouncing off a three-month low. Traders are now pricing in more than an 80 per cent probability of a Fed rate cut in September, according to interest-rate swap market data.
The inflation data, due Tuesday, will be closely watched for signs of how President Donald Trump’s new tariffs are feeding into consumer prices. Economists expect “core” inflation — excluding food and energy — to have risen by 0.3 per cent in July, up from 0.2 per cent the month before.
A hotter-than-expected reading could test market expectations for rate cuts, especially as the Fed has so far resisted Trump’s public pressure to ease policy more aggressively. The central bank has been balancing the risks of a cooling job market against still-stubborn price pressures.
Political influence creeps into the Fed
In a move that could tilt the policy debate, Trump last week installed a political ally at the Federal Reserve. Stephen Miran, who chairs the Council of Economic Advisers, has been appointed as a Fed governor — potentially shifting the central bank’s internal calculus ahead of September’s meeting.
Trending Stories
)
Eight feared dead after US Air Force B-52 bomber crashes at California's Edwards Base
)
US claims Strait of Hormuz will be toll-free. Iran says ships will pay maritime service fees. What's really in the peace deal?
)
India's $2 billion drone push: Why batteries could be biggest winner in defence-tech boom
)
DRDO successfully tests indigenous Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile
)
‘No food in the fridge’: Why Elon Musk, world’s first trillionaire, lives in 400 sq ft home?
)
Bangladesh PM’s adviser returns to Dhaka after being stopped at IGI airport. This is what we know
)
Marco Rubio's response to deaths of Indian sailors sparks backlash, opposition targets Modi's silence
)
US-Iran war ends - But did Trump achieve his ‘objectives’? WION Decodes
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
Watched Maternal Instinct? Stream these 5 similar crime investigation documentaries on Netflix
)
Ram Charan and Upasana Konidela share first glimpse of newborn twins on 14th anniversary: 'Heart Is full'
)
Israeli radars to be made in Tamil Nadu from 2027
)
Iran was preparing to attack Israel, suspended US deal after Beirut strike, says report
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
How US fighter jet pilots can change a missile's target after launch
)
G7's new reality: India, Brazil and other middle powers are becoming impossible to ignore
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
Which radar system does the US Air Force's B-52 bomber use?
)
South Korean drama Teach You a Lesson to return with season 2? Director reveals
)
Woman launched from 40-metre bridge without safety rope in Brazil, falls to death
)
Shocking new details emerge in Brazil bungee-jumping accident: 21-year-old may have been alive after fatal 130-foot fall
)
Erika Kirk to remove ‘kirk’ from her last name? This is the truth of viral claim
)
Thirty-four human foetuses found in garden of Polish female doctor's, probe underway
)
Kumkum Bhagya actor Sanchita Ugale's final social media post goes viral after tragic death
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
New OTT Releases this week (June 15-21, 2026): Drishyam 3 to Husbands In Action-7 latest movies and TV shows coming on Netflix, Prime Video and more
)
Modi at G7: Global South has a seat at the table, but is anyone listening?
)
IND vs AFG, 2nd ODI: When and where to watch live streaming in India?
)
Raakh ending explained: The final episode is far more devastating than it appears
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
B-52 vs Tupolev Tu-95 "Bear-G": Comparing technical profile of US and Russia strategic bombers
)
From Devyani Khobragade to Gulf of Oman: Has India's response to Washington changed?
)
Turkish aviation company says it lost Rs 4,700 crore in a day following Operation Sindoor
)
Antarctica feels the heat in June as temperature soars 20 degrees Celsius above normal
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
Top 7 tax-free income sources every Indian taxpayer should know
)
Dramatic footage captures moment Russian Tu-22M3 bomber crashes in Siberia | WATCH
&im=FitAndFill=(700,400))
Raakh: The most disturbing scenes that make Ali Fazal's crime thriller hard to forget
)
Telegram banned in India? NTA clarifies restrictions on messenger app ahead of NEET 2026 re-exam
This week’s US data docket is unusually heavy. Aside from the CPI, markets will get July retail sales, industrial production, producer prices, and consumer sentiment readings. These could either cement or derail expectations for the first rate cut of Trump’s current term.
Key US economic releases this week:
- August 12: NFIB small business optimism, CPI, real earnings, federal budget balance.
- August 14: Producer price index, jobless claims.
- August 15: Retail sales, manufacturing data, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Fed officials on the speaking circuit
Federal Reserve officials, including Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, and Raphael Bostic, are scheduled to make public remarks this week. Their tone could signal whether the central bank is preparing to move in September or waiting for more evidence of inflation cooling.
The Treasury market’s reaction will hinge on whether inflation aligns with forecasts. A softer print could deepen bets on multiple rate cuts before year-end, while a strong reading may keep yields elevated and delay policy easing.
(With inputs from the agencies)