India's October retail inflation rises to 4.62 per cent

Reuters Bengaluru, India Nov 13, 2019, 06.14 PM(IST)

A vegetables shop is pictured at a market area in Mumbai, India. Photograph:( Reuters )

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Annual retail inflation in October was higher compared with 3.99 per cent in the previous month and analysts' forecasts.

India's retail inflation rate rose to 4.62 per cent in October, driven by higher food prices, the government said on Wednesday.

Annual retail inflation in October was higher compared with 3.99 per cent in the previous month and analysts' forecasts.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a retail inflation rate of 4.25 per cent for October.

"This was expected given the spikes in vegetables, meat & fish and egg prices due to disruption in transportation caused by excessive and unpredictable rains. Inflation in pulses too is on the higher side due to demand-supply mismatch," said Rupa Rege NITSURE, chief economist, L&T financial holdings, Mumbai

"However, core inflation has collapsed to 3.44 per cent in October versus 4.01 per cent in September due to broad based weakness in demand. While the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will continue to provide comfort on the liquidity front, it makes sense to take a pause in the rate cutting cycle."

"The need of the hour is to boost investment confidence at the individual sector level through corrective measures and a fiscal boost. India needs to focus on growth and arrest the deflationary trends."

We think the current underlying growth-inflation mix continues to be favourable for counter-cyclical monetary stance," Madhavi Arora, Edelweiss securities, Mumbai.

"The domestic demand state, as reflected in various activity indicators, has weakened further in recent months, while fragile external growth backdrop convolutes the domestic slowdown further. We think the monetary accommodation has further steam of 50-65bps cut more in the cycle, contingent on data outcomes."

"We will closely watch out for the evolution of inflation amid various domestic and global idiosyncrasies, and fiscal fragilities that could impact the MPC's (Monetary Policy Committee's) reaction function."