Will pro-Khalistan Jagmeet Singh's poll setback pave way for Canada to take action against Khalistani terrorism?

Justin Trudeau is the past and Canadians have rejected Jagmeet Singh: Does this mean that Canada under the new Prime Minister Mark Carney would finally take action against the Khalistani elements in its soil?

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Jagmeet Singh, the pro-Khalistan leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party (NDP), suffered a humiliating defeat in the recently concluded federal elections, losing his own seat, Burnaby Central. His party failed to win the minimum required 12 seats to retain national party status in parliament. NDP which had 24 seats, could win only seven.

Trudeau resigned back in January 2025 amid a crisis within his party and declining public support. His Liberal Party believed that he would threaten the party’s chances in the next election. Trudeau’s approval ratings had fallen to historic lows by late 2024, with some polls showing Liberal support at just 16%. Trudeau’s government faced significant criticism over high living costs, housing affordability, and immigration. Pressure mounted on him after Liberal Party's key ally Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December 2024.

Mark Carney was chosen as a Liberal leader after Trudeau stepped down and he is now the reason why Liberals are back to power in Canada. Time and again, Carney highlighted that he is different from his predecessor - that he will deal with Washington firmly and will put the economy on track. With respect to ties with India, Carney has said that "it’s an incredibly important relationship...on many levels." As he hints at resetting Indo-Canadian relations, what New Delhi cares about is how his administration will deal with the Khalistani extremism?

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India, Khalistani terrorism and Trudeau

India has maintained that Khalistanis use Canadian soil for plotting anti-India activities. The India-Canada relations reached the lowest in 2023 after the Trudeau government implicated "Indian agents" in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar - a designated Khalistani terrorist in India. India condemned the accusations as baseless. In October 2024, tensions escalated further when Canada expelled six Indian diplomats. The fallout led both nations to expel top envoys, freeze trade negotiations, and suspend official visits, with New Delhi accusing Ottawa of tolerating extremism and shielding Khalistanis.

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Mark Carney's predecessor Trudeau seemed to have defended the Khalistanis during his tenure in the name of "freedom of expression." During Trudeau’s 2018 state visit to India, Jaspal Atwal, a convicted Khalistani terrorist, was invited to a Canadian diplomatic event. Trudeau’s office later claimed it was a mistake. In 2023. Trudeau in Parliament referred to Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s killing, and had said that “Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen.” In November 2024, he said that "freedom of expression" allows people to peacefully advocate for political causes, adding that Canada does not support violence or extremism. Between 2020-2024, he had said "Canada will always defend freedom of expression, freedom of conscience, and peaceful protest” a number of times.

Political compulsions may have driven Trudeau's motive as Jagmeet Singh was his kingmaker - even India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar had pointd this out in an interview last year. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, Trudeau's Liberals won the most seats but not a majority in Parliament. Trudeau’s government remained in power largely due to Jagmeet Singh’s support. Without the NDP, the Liberals would have faced a likely vote of no confidence and possibly lost power. The partnership was politically strategic but also controversial.

WATCH | Canadian elections: Liberals’ victory has implications for many, including themselves

What do numbers say about the Khalistani question?

Now, the Liberal Party has won 169 seats in the recent elections and are just three short of the majority mark in Canada’s 343-seat House of Commons. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party followed closely with 144 seats. The Bloc Québécois won 22 seats and finished third in the election race. The Green Party held onto a single seat and the NDP won seven. Thus, Carney will also run a minority government and the Liberals will need the support of an opposition party to pass legislation and survive no-confidence votes in parliament. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) appears poised to play that role. However, after its poll-drubbing, it may not have the same sway in the Liberals-led government that it had during Trudeau's tenure. Moreover, Jagmeet Singh has resigned as NDP's head.

While Carney has not directly addressed the Khalistani question yet and has restrained from directly addressing the killing of pro-Khalistan terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18, 2023, he has acknowledged the "strains" and highlighted "mutual respect" to go forward with it - “There are strains on that relationship that we didn’t cause, to be clear, but there is a path forward to address those with mutual respect and to build out," he said.