Trump’s Iran strike sends chilling signal to nuclear-armed North Korea. What's next for Kim Jong Un?

While American B-2 bombers streak across Iran, bombing facilities related to Tehran's nuclear ambitions, policymakers and experts in East Asia were already preoccupied with a key question: What message does this send to North Korea, a nation whose nuclear program is much more advanced than that of Iran? Experts warn that Washington's military interventions might make Pyongyang more determined to step up its weapons program and expand coordination with Russia, as well as harden its leader Kim Jong Un's conviction that nuclear weapons are the ultimate defense against US-enforced regime change.

Even after years of attempts to dissuade North Korea from keeping its nuclear weapons program, the Kim regime is believed to have several nuclear weapons, along with missiles capable of reaching the United States – thus, any potential military attack on the Korean Peninsula would have immensely greater risks.

President Trump's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities will inevitably further strengthen the legitimacy of North Korea's long-held policy of regime survival and nuclear armament," Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean studies at South Korea's Kyungnam University was quoted saying to CNN. "North Korea views the recent US air strike as a preemptive military attack and will probably speed up efforts to improve its own preemptive nuclear missile capability," added Lim.

That speed, experts warn, might be delivered by way of Russian support, as a result of an emerging military romance the two neighbors have embarked upon since Moscow invaded Ukraine. Since it was formally established in 2024, North Korea's strategic alliance with Russia has emerged as a very important economic and military lifeline for Pyongyang in the face of continuing Western sanctions.

"Under the strategic partnership with Russia, Pyongyang will tend to proceed to cooperative weapons development, cooperative military drills, technology exchange, and increased mutual interdependence in economic and military areas," Lim explained.

North Korea has dispatched over 14,000 troops and millions of ammunition, including missiles and rockets, to support Russia's invasion, says a report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), a program composed of 11 United Nations members. Russia has returned the favour by supplying North Korea with diverse precious pieces of weaponry and technology, such as air defense systems, anti-aircraft missiles, electronic warfare capabilities and refined petroleum.

These activities "enables North Korea to finance its military projects and continue to expand its ballistic missiles programmes, which are themselves illegal under several (UN Security Council resolutions), and acquire first-hand exposure to contemporary warfare," the study showed.

In Kim's view, recent US military intervention in Iran is following a disturbing pattern of logic: countries without nuclear power, from Iraq and Libya to Iran, are susceptible to US intervention, Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies was quoted saying to CNN. North Korea, having now tested six nuclear devices and built long-range missiles, regards its arsenal as non-negotiable.

As described by Cha, Washington's attacks against Tehran's nuclear facilities will certainly make an indelible mark on the Kim regime. "The strikes against Iran will only reinforce two things for North Korea, neither one of which plays well for US policy," he said. "One: the US has no use-of-force alternative for North Korea's nuclear program like they did with Israel and Iran. Two: the attack only confirms in Kim Jong Un's mind his commitment to continue seeking and having a nuclear arsenal."

And the difference between Iran and North Korea is dramatic, especially when it comes to nuclear weapons. Iran, on the other hand, has not yet produced a deliverable nuclear weapon and its uranium enrichment had still fallen below the level for weaponisation, the International Atomic Energy Agency's most recent estimate said.

It had also engaged in years of diplomatic efforts with the US and Western nations regarding its nuclear program, diplomacy that was ostensibly still active when Trump authorised B-2 stealth bombers to release "bunker busting" bombs on Iran's nuclear sites. North Korea is estimated to have between 40 and 50 warheads, as well as the capability to deliver them throughout the region and possibly even to the US mainland.