The invisible poison: Why Iran’s collapse could contaminate the Middle East

Imagine a country where all the police suddenly disappear. Things break down, buildings get damaged, and thieves roam freely. Now imagine that same country has nuclear materials dangerous enough to poison millions of people. This is exactly what the world fears could happen in Iran.

Recently, American President Donald Trump hinted on social media that a “massive armada” is heading towards Iran. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump’s administration is considering military action following Iran’s violent crackdowns on protesters. The American armada isn’t just for striking targets. Its presence might be the only way to launch risky “snatch and grab” teams to secure nuclear materials if chaos erupts. This is extremely worrying because Iran possesses large amounts of highly enriched uranium and operates nuclear reactors. If the government falls and chaos breaks out, these nuclear materials could fall into the wrong hands, creating a catastrophe affecting the entire world.

Think of highly enriched uranium like a loaded gun in a secure safe. As long as it’s locked, everyone is safe. But if the safe breaks open, anyone can grab it. Dangerous groups, militias, and terrorist organisations could steal these materials and create weapons of mass destruction. History proves this has happened before, and international experts are genuinely frightened.

Iran has approximately 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%. This doesn’t need much more processing to create a nuclear bomb. It’s like having the main ingredient ready for a bomb that could destroy an entire city. Scientists believe this material is hidden in tunnel complexes and damaged enrichment facilities. For determined terrorists or countries building nuclear weapons, stealing it could be worth the effort because it’s incredibly valuable on the black market.

Beyond uranium, Iran has the Bushehr nuclear power reactor still operating. Around it are large water-filled pools containing used nuclear fuel rods holding radioactive materials like cesium-137. Here’s what makes this terrifying: cesium-137 is the same radioactive material that made parts of Chernobyl, Ukraine uninhabitable for decades after the 1986 disaster. Decades later, people still cannot live there. If Iran’s pools are damaged, radiation could spread across huge areas, poisoning tens of thousands in Iran and nearby Gulf countries for many years. Wind carries radiation across borders without permission, affecting innocent people far away.

Iran also operates medical and research centres with highly radioactive materials that could be weaponised into “dirty bombs”. A dirty bomb combines regular explosives with radioactive material. When it explodes, it spreads deadly radiation everywhere, contaminating land and water. The damage isn’t as catastrophic as nuclear weapons, but it’s devastating enough to terrify entire cities.

Here’s where history becomes our teacher. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the world could have experienced a nuclear disaster. But there’s a crucial lesson: America couldn’t simply march in and grab everything. The crumbling Soviet government actually cooperated. Both sides worked together through the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. America spent hundreds of millions of dollars helping Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan secure their nuclear materials and warheads. The Soviet leaders maintained order while handing over control. This cooperation made everything safer and more organised.

But with Iran, if the government completely collapses, there might be nobody left to cooperate with. Nobody in charge. Nobody agreeing to anything. Countries might need aggressive action—what experts call “snatch and grab” or “seal and secure” operations. In simple terms, armed teams would rush in, secure dangerous materials, and seal off dangerous sites without waiting for permission. This is why the armada matters. Its military presence provides the protection and firepower needed for such risky operations. It’s dangerous and messy, but it might become necessary if everything falls apart completely.

In Iraq after the 2003 invasion, the Tuwaitha nuclear complex was left unguarded for days. Local people broke in and stole materials. This showed what happens when nobody acts quickly enough to protect nuclear sites from chaos and looters.

South Africa offers hope. In the early 1990s, when apartheid ended, the government carefully dismantled its nuclear weapons programme. They planned and supervised everything properly with international oversight.

Right now, America and its allies face a dangerous choice. They must prepare emergency plans immediately. If Iran’s government remains stable enough to cooperate, that’s the safest path forward. But if chaos erupts, the world must be ready to move fast. The armada standing by isn’t a threat alone—it’s insurance that rapid action can happen when needed. Either way, waiting does nothing. The clock is ticking, and the stakes have never been higher.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)