Nuclear tests or Elections - How 2024 will be remembered? Here's what analysts think

Experts on Wednesday (Dec 13) warned that there could be two nuclear weapons tests in 2024 ― one by Russia and the other by North Korea. Next year, which will see many elections including in India, the United States, and Russia, analysts think that nuclear tests will be long remembered.

Analysts at the Korea Institute for National Unification, which is a state-funded think tank, said while speaking at a conference in Seoul that Russia will likely conduct its first nuclear test in more than 30 years.

It will be followed by a nuclear test by North Korea, the first time since 2017, as they talked about the prospects for inter-Korean relations.

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As quoted by The Korea Times, Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank, said: "To demonstrate its military capabilities to the world and its own people, Russia is expected to conduct a nuclear test next year. This could give fresh impetus to North Korea's own nuclear test."

The remarks again sparked nuclear catastrophe fear amid ongoing wars, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, and other geopolitical conflicts.

Hyun stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is all set to claim "overwhelming victory" in the upcoming election and to threaten Moscow's adversaries, he may consider nuclear testing which is possible now than ever after Russia revoked his country's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Putin might considermaking a significant and decisive move in the offensive against Ukraine amid a battlefield stalemate.

Kim Jin-ha, another senior analyst at the think tank talked about whether or not Russia and North Korea will coordinate before the expected nuclear tests.

Kim said that it is unlikely, but since nations have close ties and share similar goals of strengthening against the West, Pyongyang may factor in the Russian timing.

As quoted, Kim said: "One possible scenario is to test-fire Haeil (a North Korean underwater drone claimed to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead)… Because the regime needs to prove its capability to actually operate nuclear weapons (to seek disarmament negotiations with the US eventually) with real evidence."

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South Korea urges Russia to help sanction North Korea

A senior South Korean official said on Tuesday that Russia should help impose new sanctions against North Korea over its recent launch of a spy satellite. The official also said that Moscow must enforce existing bans on the isolated country's labour exports.

South Korea's unification minister Kim Yung-ho, in charge of inter-Korean ties, said last month's satellite launch violated UN Security Council resolutions banning North Korea's use of ballistic technology.

There are "clear signs" of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, and Seoul is also looking into whether Russia has accepted more North Korean workers in defiance of U.N. resolutions, Kim said.

"As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has responsibility to faithfully implement its sanctions resolutions," he told a news conference.

(With inputs from agencies)