Iran had previously issued warnings to deter Trump from supporting Israel’s strikes, but the situation spiralled regardless. With the US now directly involved, Tehran is expected to retaliate, though its options remain limited and risky.
Tensions between Iran-US escalated sharply after Washington bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran, warning of further “precision strikes” unless Tehran backed down from its conflict with Israel. The US hit nuclear sites located in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, targets long associated with Iran’s uranium enrichment programme. This dramatic move came just days after President Donald Trump had publicly hinted at deciding on Iran “within two weeks.” President Trump, addressing reporters from the Oval Office, warned, “There will either be peace or tragedy for Iran, far greater than what we have witnessed over the last eight days.”
Iran had previously issued warnings to deter Trump from supporting Israel’s strikes, but the situation spiralled regardless. With the US now directly involved, Tehran is expected to retaliate, though its options remain limited and risky.
There is growing concern in Washington about the safety of Americans abroad, with comparisons being drawn to the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. In 1979, where 66 US personnel were held for 444 days, damaged American prestige and contributed to President Jimmy Carter’s defeat.
Despite tighter security now, over 40,000 US troops are currently deployed in the region, making them potential targets for Iranian revenge.
Richard Haass, a former advisor during the Iraq war, told CNN that Iran has several methods at its disposal to harm US interests. “They can act asymmetrically… with terrorism, militias, hostage-taking. It’s what they do,” he said.
He said that Trump’s decision to drop multiple “bunker buster” bomb, designed to penetrate deeply buried sites, on Fordow had serious consequences. “We’ve got to prepare for the worst. These are unprecedented times,” Haass said.
Iranian state-controlled media was quick to issue threats following the US airstrikes. “Mr. Trump, you started it, and we will end it… Every American citizen or military personnel in the region is now a target,” one broadcast declared. The same network aired maps of US military bases in the region, claiming they were within firing range of Iranian weapons.
While Iran’s conventional responses have had limited success, experts warn that Tehran could turn to asymmetric methods, similar to its past strategies in Iraq and Afghanistan. The October 7 attack on Israel, which claimed over 1,000 lives, is also cited as an example of how deadly such operations can be.
Governor Gavin Newsom responded to the development by posting on social media that California’s State Threat Assessment Center was monitoring for any potential domestic impact. “While there are no specific or credible counter threats we are aware of at this time, we urge everyone to stay vigilant,” he wrote.
Analysts believe Iran’s leadership may feel compelled to respond forcefully to maintain its image and credibility. Jonathan Panikoff from the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative told The New York Times, “Then you’re looking at a significant escalatory spiral that could get out of hand quickly.”