Israel-Iran war: Missiles, proxies or Strait of Hormuz? How Iran might hit back at the US after nuclear site bombings

Tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated sharply after the United States bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran, Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. The strikes came on the ninth day of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, during which it targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, killing top scientists and military leaders. US President Donald Trump had earlier warned that he was considering bombing Iran. Following the attack, he declared, “There will either be peace or tragedy for Iran, far greater than what we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

How can Iran strike back?

Iran had warned Washington against joining the conflict, but its ability to respond has been weakened by days of Israeli airstrikes that damaged long-range missile launchers. However, Iran still retains a large stock of short-range missiles and drones, which could be used in retaliation.

To reduce vulnerability, the US has already repositioned its naval forces in the region and increased its air defence systems.

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Proxies may respond on Iran’s behalf

One of Iran’s strongest tools has long been its regional network of allied militias, known as the “axis of resistance.” This includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, these groups have also been weakened. Hezbollah’s missile stockpile was hit hard by Israeli jets in 2023. In April this year, more Israeli airstrikes targeted a suspected weapons cache in Beirut.

Still, Iran-backed militias continue to issue threats. Abu Ali al-Askari, a commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, told CNN that US military bases would soon become “duck-hunting grounds.” The US currently has at least 19 bases in the Middle East, eight of them permanent. The Houthis, who agreed to a ceasefire with the US in May, have said they will consider the truce broken if American strikes on Iran continue. They have previously targeted US ships in the Red Sea, though with mixed success.

Can Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran could also retaliate by targeting international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway just 55km wide at its narrowest point. Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Some Iranian politicians have called for closing the strait, which would immediately raise global oil prices and trigger inflation in the US. However, this move could severely hurt Iran’s own economy, as its oil exports also rely on the same route. It could also force Gulf Arab countries, already angry over Israeli strikes, to enter the war to protect their interests.

Delayed revenge not ruled out

Iran has sometimes waited before responding to external attacks. Its foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, suggested a delayed and calculated response could still be on the table, saying Trump’s actions “will have everlasting consequences.”