Explained: India-Pakistan tensions over Indus Waters Treaty | A ready reckoner

Around six decades back, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank. The agreement was followed by nine years of negotiations and was termed as "one of the most successful international treaties" by the financial institution. Dwight Eisenhower, who was the president of the United States when the treaty was signed in 1960, described it as "one bright spot...in a very depressing world picture that we see so often". The treaty is linked to the use of waters of the Indus River System by the two countries. India has an absolute control of eastern rivers — Beas, Sutlej and Ravi — while Pakistan is allowed to "receive for unrestricted use waters of the western rivers which India is under obligation to let flow beyond the permitted uses," reads a government document. Chenab, Jhelum and Indus are the western rivers which flow through Jammu and Kashmir.

Tensions over the Treaty, however,escalated last month when India sent a notice to Pakistan over Islamabad's continued “intransigence” in implementing the agreement, by raising repeated objections to the construction of hydel projects on the Indian side.

Hydroelectric power projects at the centre of tensions
For more than a decade, the two countries have been locked in a standoff regarding the agreement and two hydroelectric power facilities on tributaries of the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. Some experts view the dispute intertwined with the decades-old Kashmir issue between the neighbouring nations.

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The KishangangaHydroelectricProject, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2018, includes a tributary of the Jhelum. Since Pakistan was permitted unrestricted use of the western river, it raised objections against India's project and claimed that it would deplete river water levels. Another project, which prompted pushback from Pakistan, is the underconstruction Ratle river project on the Chenab River. In 2021, the Union Cabinet, chaired by PM Modi, approved an investment of Rs 5,281 crore for the 850 mega watt hydro-electric project that aims to improve the power supply position in the Union Territory.

Indus waters are a lifeline for Pakistan, which is counted as one of the most water-stressed countries of the world. In 2018, a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ranked Pakistan on the third spot in a list of nations facing severe water shortage. Fears have prevailed over the worsening of climate-related conflict between the two nations that have nuclear arms.

In a factsheet on its official website, the World Bank explains: "The two countries disagree over whether the technical design features of these two hydroelectric plants contravene the Treaty." The agreement, it further stresses, "designates these two rivers, as well as the Indus, as the western rivers to which Pakistan has unrestricted use with some exceptions. Under the Treaty, India is permitted to construct hydroelectric power facilities on these rivers, subject to constraints specified in Annexures to the Treaty."

A document by India's Ministry of Jal Shakti cites annexures to stress that the country can use the water of western rivers for domestic use, including agricultural use and generation of hydro-electric power. India is "permitted to construct storage of water on western rivers upto 3.6 million acre feet (MAF) for various purposes as specified in the Annexure E of the Treaty," it reads.

A brief timeline
In 2010, the Kishanganga project faced a major challenge when Islamabad approached the Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration and accused New Delhi of violating the Treaty. In 2011, India was asked to submit related data after a visit by the Court of Arbitration to review the Neelum–Jhelum Projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and the Kishanganga facility. Two years later, the court told India to divert a minimum of water for theproject. A minimum flow of 9 cubic metres per second (Cumecs) was permitted, which was more than the Indian government’s proposal of 4.25 cumecs. New Delhi was, however, told that construction of the dam could be continued in a setback to Pakistan.

In 2016, skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) triggered panic among workers and briefly disrupted the construction. The workers were shifted from Gurez to Bandipora at the time.

Pakistan also asked the World Bank in 2016 to facilitate the setting up of a Court of Arbitration to look into its concerns. "India asked for the appointment of a neutral expert for the same purpose. These requests came after the Permanent Indus Commission had been engaged in discussions on the matter for a while," the institution highlighted on the factsheet on its website.

"The World Bank sought to fulfill its procedural obligations with respect to both the Court of Arbitration and the neutral expert. The Treaty does not empower the World Bank to decide whether one procedure should take precedence over the other; rather it vests the determination of jurisdictional competence on each of the two mechanisms. At the same time, the World Bank actively encouraged both countries to agree amicably on a mechanism to address the issues," it further said.

On March 31, 2022, the international financial institution decided to resume the process of appointing a neutral expert and a chairman for the Court of Arbitration.

But earlier this month, New Delhi questioned the World Bank's decision to appoint a Court of Arbitration and a neutral expert under two separate processes to resolve differences. "I do not think they (World Bank) are in a position to interpret the treaty for us. It is a treaty between our two countries and our assessment of the treaty is that there is a provision of graded approach," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said.

Eyeing a modification of the Treaty, India, in its notice last month,underlined that Pakistan's actions have "adversely impinged on the provisions of IWT and their implementation."

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