Explained | Donald Trump might still win 2024 presidential elections. Here are some reasons

Warning bells have been ringing in the White House for quite some time now, and per the administration’s own officials, Donald Trump is to be blamed for this.

Last week, the former US president said he wanted to be a “dictator for one day” if re-elected to a second term. In response, White House officials declared him the biggest threat to American democracy.

Such concerns have been exacerbated by the fact that Trump has been extremely popular among Republican voters, with above 50 per cent of them throwing their weight behind him.

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His ever-expanding legal miseries seem to have failed to shake his expansive support base on the conservative flank.

Three years ago, some political pundits wrote off Trump as vanquished, humiliated and gone forever; only to be truly stunned by his remarkable comeback.

With the next US presidential elections just 11 months away, here we look at four major reasons why Donald Trump could register a victory against his Democratic rival Joe Biden.

Poor Bidenomics

The Biden White House claims that the economy is doing well. Unemployment has dropped to 3.9 per cent, a near-historic low, down from 6.3 per cent when Trump left office amidst COVID-19 disruption.

Inflation has also cooled from over 9 per cent in June 2022 to 3.2 per cent in October 2023. Despite these positive indicators, many people, especially voters of colour and young voters, disagree.

They argue that wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of essential goods and services like groceries, cars, houses, and childcare.

When Biden talks about the economy, people are more concerned about affordability than economic statistics.

Half of Americans say their financial situation is worse off than it was three years ago during the last presidential election, according to a recent survey reported by Fox Business.

Meanwhile, Trump has promised to make radical changes in the country's tax, market and foreign trade regime that, he claims, will upend the sorry state of the economy.

Public perception and Republican appeal

Public opinion polls reveal that, by a significant margin, voters see Republicans as better economic stewards, even though Trump's proposals are often vague.

Many people feel unsettled for reasons beyond the economy.

Trump taps into the concerns of many white Americans who worry about the increasing diversity and cultural progressiveness of the country.

There's also a widespread sense that key aspects of American life, such as home ownership, decent wages, and college education, are becoming harder to attain.

Voters express anxiety about crime and illegal border crossings, issues Trump skillfully addresses, positioning himself as both the problem identifier and the solution.

Trump's image and support

Critics within the Democratic Party, his own party, and the media consider Trump unfit for office. However, millions of voters disagree, viewing him as a victim of a political witch hunt.

Many of his supporters are ready to vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime. Trump highlights his four years in office, arguing that the government functioned well despite chaotic moments and unproven allegations, such as collusion with Russia.

Instead, Trump has leveraged the ever-expanding list of criminal cases against him, while garnering sympathy among the masses and showcasing himself as the ultimate saver who must be saved.

Watch:Special counsel Jack Smith challenges 'Presidential Immunity' of Donald Trump

As per the latest media reports, Trump is leaving no stone unturned to monetise his infamous mugshot. Earlier this week, he said that snippets of the suit he wore for that photo would be available for purchase, as part of a new sale of NFT “digital trading cards,” a product he debuted in late 2022.

“It was a great suit, believe me, a really good suit. It’s all cut up, and you’re gonna get a piece of it,” Trump said in a video on Truth Social.

Biden's challenges and Trump's advantage

Biden's efforts to showcase his job-creation policies, involving government investment in infrastructure, clean energy, and chip manufacturing, have struggled to convince a significant portion of the public that these policies are positively impacting their lives.

Additionally, Biden faces challenges related to foreign wars. His unconditional support to Ukraine has not gone down well with a lot of Republicans, who believe fixing issues at home should be the administration’s biggest responsibility.

On the other hand, Trump's "America first" message aligns with voters wary of further US involvement abroad. Trump can leverage these factors to appeal to those who prefer a non-interventionist foreign policy.

While these four reasons don’t necessarily mean that Trump is on his way to return to the White House, they very well reflect his strong political musclethat has spurred concerns even amongst the Democrats and White House officials.

(With inputs from agencies)