Crown Prince MBS US visit: Will Saudi–Pak–US relationships cause worry for India?

As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the United States on Tuesday (Nov 18), there are signs of bilateral engagements that point to intensifying security ties among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the US. This raises the question of whether both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could be used by Washington as vantage points for monitoring Iran. It also prompts a wider inquiry into what a Saudi–Pakistan–US security arrangement might mean for India. The Crown Prince’s visit is expected to cement the US–Saudi partnership even as the kingdom’s longstanding security ties with Pakistan remain well-known. These tracks could intersect when it comes to managing their shared regional rival, Iran. But where would India figure in all these?

Setting the context: Saudi Crown Prince visit and growing US ties

MBS’s visit might see the firming up of major Saudi investment commitments in the US economy. President Donald Trump has hinted that F-35 fighter jets and other advanced American defence equipment could be made available to Riyadh. Discussions around a Saudi civilian nuclear programme continue, alongside consultations on technological cooperation in artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and semiconductor supply chains. The White House is also pushing for Saudi–Israeli normalisation under the broader framework of the Abraham Accords, a process already underway in several Gulf and Arab states.

Saudi–Pakistan strategic ties are firming up

Meanwhile, Saudi-Pakistan cooperation took a dramatic step forward in September with the signing of the Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. Coming in the aftermath of India–Pakistan tensions and Operation Sindoor - India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack- the pact declared that an attack on either state would be treated as an attack on both, echoing the collective defence logic of NATO’s Article 5. Saudi Arabia faces ongoing threats from the Houthis in Yemen even as it seeks to balance Iran’s influence, and Pakistan continues to provide the kingdom with military training and manpower. Reports that Pakistani nuclear capabilities could be used to support Saudi deterrence, although officially denied, have contributed to the perception that Riyadh is developing fallback security options should its relationship with the US deteriorate. The Saudi-Pakistan pact had ruffled some feathers in India.

America's new interest in Pakistan: A useful nuisance

Trump’s renewed interest in Pakistan adds a further layer of complexity to these arragements. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and its army chief Gen Asim Munir visited Washington recently for meetings centred on counterterrorism cooperation and the revival of military-to-military engagement. To India’s discomfort, these interactions signalled that the US continues to see strategic value in maintaining a working relationship with Islamabad.

Iran remains a central concern for all three states

Despite the Saudi–Iran détente that followed the 2023 agreement brokered by China, the two remain strategic adversaries divided by deep-rooted sectarian, geopolitical, and ideological differences. Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear programme, and the activities of Iranian-backed groups across the region are regarded by Saudi Arabia as long-term security challenges. Pakistan, for its part, has had a troubled history with Iran involving border instability, sectarian militancy, rivalry in Afghanistan, and mutual accusations of supporting militant actors. Although Pakistan maintains formal diplomatic ties with Tehran, its strategic alignment with Saudi Arabia is much stronger.

Saudi Arabia is also attempting to reduce regional tensions

Vision 2030 agenda, Mohammed bin Salman’s economic and social transformation plan requires a stable regional environment, which explains both the pursuit of détente with Iran and efforts to normalise ties with Israel in coordination with the US. Reducing the likelihood of major regional conflicts is a core priority for the kingdom’s long-term strategic trajectory.

For India, a fast-shifting landscape demanding careful attention

The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact initially created suspicion in New Delhi, as it theoretically could be invoked during a future India–Pakistan confrontation. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly assured India that its commitments to Pakistan are not directed against Indian interests. The kingdom maintains extensive economic ties with India: energy, investment, and throgh Indian expat workers. India also continues to maintain strong relations with the US despite recent fluctuations linked to American domestic politics and Trump's tariff tantrums. These diversified partnerships provide New Delhi with diplomatic leverage.

Nonetheless, India faces a more complex regional environment as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan strengthen their ties with Washington. For now, India retains both the political influence and economic capability to navigate a situation in which Saudi Arabia and Pakistan move closer to the United States. But a tighter embrace among the three could pose a problem in future.