Haunted by a rival? Pakistan sees India as ‘existential threat’, accelerates nuclear modernisation: Report

Pakistan is intensifying efforts to modernise its nuclear arsenal, driven by its longstanding perception of India as an 'existential threat', according to a US report.

In the wake of renewed military tensions in South Asia, the assessment was part of the US Defence Intelligence Agency’s 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment report, released days after India’s military response to the Pahalgam terror attack.

The report suggests that Pakistan is focusing on the enhancement of its nuclear capabilities, including it's development of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons, in an effort to offset India’s conventional military advantage.

“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons,” the report said.

The assessment also notes that Pakistan is receiving military and economic support from China to support this modernisation.

The report added, "Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates."

While Islamabad still continues to rely heavily on Beijing as its main defence partner, there are growing tensions in this relationship, the reports cite a rise in militant attacks targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan.

The intelligence document also outlines the broader security challenges facing Pakistan. These include ongoing border conflicts, the rise in attack of organisations like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Baloch nationalist militants, as well as several counter-terrorism operations. Despite these efforts, more than 2,500 people were killed in militant violence within Pakistan in 2024.

In contrast, the report notes that India views Islamabad only as an 'ancillary security proble' to be managed, and not as a central strategic challenge indicating a divergent threat perception between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.