Indian student video reignites border debate, here’s how Trump's illegal immigrant crackdown affecting US job market

A gripping video showing an Indian student scaling fences along the US–Mexico border went viral this week, prompting a swift response from the US Department of Homeland Security. “Illegal entry will have consequences,” the department declared, signalling an uncompromising turn in border enforcement.

The viral video reignited conservative calls for stricter controls, exactly the tone President Trump amplified by signing an executive order on 9 June barring citizens from 12 countries including Afghanistan, Iran, Libya and Haiti, from entering the US, citing national security and high visa overstay rates, according to Reuters.

Protests erupted across Los Angeles, with ICE raids, deployment of National Guard troops, and even Marines drawing sharp criticism from local leaders such as Mayor Bass and Governor Newsom.

President Trump’s second term has seen a broad escalation in immigration enforcement. Executive actions have reinstated travel bans, restricted asylum access, ramped up workplace raids, and tightened student and work visa scrutiny under Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

The beginning of labour-market tremors

Initial glimpses reveal that the immigration crackdown is already affecting the labour market. May’s non-farm payrolls showed only 139,000 new jobs, far below projections, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2 per cent, according to Reuters. That same month, a staggering 625,000 people exited the workforce, suggesting many may have withdrawn for fear of enforcement, rather than due to economic recovery.

Meanwhile, data from the US Department of Labor reveal the foreign-born workforce has shrunk by approximately one million since March, the steepest decline in two months since the early COVID‑19 pandemic. Economists warn this skews perceptions of labour market strength; fewer workers can artificially depress unemployment, even as job creation remains sluggish.

Some projections suggest that the threshold for maintaining steady unemployment—the “breakeven” job growth rate—could drop to as low as 50,000 new jobs a month.

The indispensable role of Indian professionals

Indian professionals continue to be a cornerstone of the US economy. Fiscal 2023 figures from the Iranian Programme show that Indian nationals obtained about 78 per cent of the 265,777 H‑1B visas awarded by the US Department of State. These visas enable skilled workers, especially in IT, healthcare and academics to contribute significantly to innovation, enterprise and employment.

University research highlights that nearly half of new US firms are immigrant-founded, with Indians well represented among high-growth tech startups that generate jobs for Americans. Indian-American households reportedly enjoy the highest median income in the US, currently over US $126,891, nearly twice the national average.

Any erosion of this skilled cohort due to visa uncertainty or processing delays could ripple widely across the economy.

Ongoing illegal immigration challenges

The US has long contended with illegal immigration from border crossings and visa overstays to asylum backlogs. President Trump’s administration has ramped up enforcement with worksite raids, travel bans spanning 19 nations, and cancellations or delays of work-permit approvals.

By March, Border Patrol recorded just 7,400 migrant arrests, a stark fall from 250,000 in December 2023, underscoring significant reductions in unauthorised entries, according to Reuters.

Yet tighter visa protocols and rising deportation fears have spooked many foreign workers, prompting them to avoid jobs or abandon applications for permits altogether. The result: fewer visible workers, fewer hires, and possible workforce gaps—even as employer demand remains.

Why this matters now

Trump’s policies may yield short-lived political optics, but the emerging labour data suggest hidden vulnerabilities. A shrinking workforce doesn’t equate to stronger employment, it conceals it. As skilled immigrant workers and Indian professionals withdraw, industries from tech to hospitality risk shortages, delayed innovation, and hiring bottlenecks.

With the next jobs report due on 3 July, analysts will be watching closely. If labour participation shrinks further without proportional job growth, it could expose structural issues. Striking a balance between border enforcement and maintaining vital immigrant inflows will define whether the US can preserve its diverse, innovation-driven economy or whether politics reshapes its labour future.

(With inputs from the agencies)