On this day, Baghdad fell to US forces in 2003; a look at Iraq's politics and its ties with US

It was April 9, 2003 that changed the geopolitical realities of West Asia: on this day, Iraq's capital Baghdad fell to the US forces within a month after the US invaded Iraq. Who would forget the televised visuals of the toppling of the statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad's Firdos Square by the US forces?

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While no 'weapons of mass destruction' were found in Iraq as claimed by then-US President George Bush, the war changed Iraq's contemporary political and social realities and America's position in West Asia. More than a decade later, the US-Iraq relations remain crucial amid larger regional complexities. The shadow of Saddam Hussein's reign has long gone but the US troops continue to be in the country "to support the mission against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and in Iraq."

What happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall?

In May 2003, Paul Bremer, the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, disbanded the Iraqi army and barred Iraq's Baath Party from participating in the government formation process. The decision alienated hundreds of Iraqis who had been part of the Baath Party out of compulsions under Saddam Hussein.

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A new constitution was adopted in 2005 amid instability and Iraqis voted in the same year giving the Shia majority control of parliament. Under the new governing system, the prime minister was a member of the Shia Muslim majority, the president a Kurd and the speaker a Sunni. The first prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki ran the government for eight years with America as a partner of sorts. However, he fell out of favour in 2011 due to his close ties to Tehran. He faced strong Sunni rebellion and reportedly sought support from Shia-majority Iran and not the US. Nouri al-Maliki finally stepped down as prime minister in 2014 and Iraq got a new PM in Haider al-Abadi. Though, Washington and Tehran supported al-Abadi, tensions in Iraq remained and he faced similar Sunni opposition to that of Maliki. Subsequent governments in Iraq also couldn't deal with Iraq's complex politics amid the shadow of the US.

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How the US-Iraq relations fared post-2003?

Iraq’s relationship with the US has been governed by a series of framework accords. The first such document was the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). The agreement mandated the withdrawal of all US troops by the end of 2011. This process was completed under Barack Obama between 2009 to 2017. However, the vacuum created by the withdrawal of US troops amid political instability and sectarian conflicts eventually paved the way for a fertile ground for ISIS. US troops were once again back on Iraqi soil within only three years to fight ISIS which seized much of the north of the country. This time, the American presence came at the invitation of the Iraqi government and involved both combat and training missions.

Another agreement between Washington and Baghdad is the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) which outlines productive ties across sectors, including security, economic development, and health. The accord continues to be the foundation for the bilateral relationship between both the countries.

Current political situation in Iraq and dynamics with the US

Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani became the prime minister of Iraq in 2022. Sudani is in the midst of massive internal turmoil and pressure from the Coordination Framework which has backed his leadership. The members of this framework include former PM Maliki, Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) - who are pro-Iran. Domestically, he is expected for a reassessment of Iraq’s relationship with the US. However, analysts say that Al Sudani understands that the stability that Iraq has in troubled West Asia is because of the economic and security guarantees provided by the US.

US soldiers are still in Iraq. The US troops maintain a military presence across four key bases: Erbil Air Base in the Kurdistan Region, the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center at the airport, the Union III base in Baghdad’s Green Zone, and Al Asad Air Base in Anbar province. though since December 2021 they have been conducting a training and advising mission and not a combat role. In December 2021, the coalition announced it had transitioned from a combat to an advisory role in Iraq. However, US forces have continued to participate in partnered raids in Iraq, the latest being in August 2024 in western Iraq targeting ISIS.

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the coming up of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, Iraq once again is in a vulnerable position. It cannot accept Jolani who was responsible for the killing of numerous innocent Iraqi civilians under al-Qaeda. US President Donald Trump and his tough stance on Iran along with Iraq's internal politics would define how the US-Iraq ties would look going forward.

(with inputs from agencies)